Trader Anticipating Escalation in War Turns Overnight: Shorts Oil for Millions, Slashes 75% of Long Iran Position

BlockBeats News, August 28th. According to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight), the Polymarket trader "xm39," who previously bet on "U.S. to invade Iran by 2027" and was long on crude oil, began yesterday to simultaneously unwind both ends of the "escalation of conflict" position, with the crude oil side directly flipping short this morning.

Yesterday, the associated address 0x40f closed out 175,900 WTI crude oil long positions, with a transaction volume of approximately $14.253 million, realizing a loss of about $282,000. About two minutes later, "xm39" began selling off the war prediction position on Polymarket.

Through 50 sell transactions, 1,182,300 "U.S. to invade Iran by 2027" Yes shares were sold, with a market-implied probability of about 14.1% at the time of the transactions, yielding approximately $166,700. This sell-off covered about 75.5% of the position, leaving only 383,100 shares remaining.

As of the time of writing, the market-implied probability of "U.S. to invade Iran by 2027" has further dropped to 12.5%. The remaining 383,100 Yes shares have an average entry probability of about 23.28%, with a current value of around $47,900, an unrealized loss of about $41,300, and a loss percentage of 46.3%.

This morning, the address accumulated 122,500 short positions of CL contracts, currently holding a leveraged short position of approximately $10.183 million, with a floating profit of about $30,000, a return rate of about 5.9%, and a liquidation price of $93.09. Simultaneously, 7 stop-loss orders are set between $83.522 and $84.001, covering approximately 91.3% of the current short position.

WTI crude oil rose 1.6% overnight to $83.53, mainly driven by cooled expectations of the U.S.-Iran negotiations and renewed supply risk concerns; however, oil prices are still down by about 4.3% for the week. The short position taken by 0x40f was established after the overnight rebound.

Previous News: "xm39" Trader Predicts Further Upside for Crude Oil, Position Increases to $48 million

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