NVIDIA Revenue Doubles vs Apple's Foldable Phone Release: Smart Money Predicts Apple Will Surpass NVIDIA in Market Cap, with Potential Profits Over 10x

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has put in $1900 on the outcome "Will Apple become the world's most valuable company by market cap at the close on September 30th?", with an average buying probability of 9.3%. The current probability for "Yes" stands at 8.0%.

Hauchn has also invested $1900, with the top-performing sector in this market being Finance, with a sector net profit of $305,000. Within this sector, out of 166 settled trades, their win rate is 60/166 (36%), with 30 trades meeting the criteria of buying price below $0.8 and selling price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.001-$0.15), the median of their historical investment amounts is $138, making this current investment 13.6 times the median.

On August 26th, Apple's stock price rose by approximately 1.15%. The immediate catalyst was Apple confirming a special event scheduled for September 9th; while the product lineup has not been disclosed yet, the market widely expects the launch of a new generation iPhone, possibly including the first foldable iPhone.

NVIDIA experienced a 1.6% decline during regular trading hours, resembling a pre-earnings high-expectation sell-off rather than a sudden deterioration in the company's fundamentals. Market concerns revolve around whether the multi-billion-dollar capital expenditure on AI data centers can sustain its returns, and there is a focus on NVIDIA's support of AI customer expansion through investment, financing assistance, and guarantees, raising questions of potential "debt spiral" demand. Additionally, higher-than-expected inflation data has increased expectations of a rate hike later this year, which is particularly challenging for high-valuation growth stocks.

It's worth noting that NVIDIA's post-market earnings report actually exceeded expectations, with Q2 revenue at $96.2 billion, a 106% year-over-year increase, and Q3 revenue guidance of around $108 billion.
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