Holding Too Much Bitcoin Makes Companies a Target? MicroStrategy's Probability of Being Excluded from MSCI Index Reaches 85% This Year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy trader has placed a $1.8k bet on "Will MicroStrategy be removed from the MSCI Index this year?" with a median buy-in probability of 20.0%, while the current "yes" probability stands at 85.0%.

UnderdogOutlier has wagered $1.8k in the best-performing sector of this market, which is the cryptocurrency sector, resulting in a net profit of $12.3k. Out of 16 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 10/16 (62%), with 6 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.101-$0.25), the median historical bet amount is $337.

MSCI is one of the world's leading index providers, responsible for creating and maintaining benchmarks such as the MSCI World Index, MSCI USA Index, and MSCI Global Index. Many ETFs, pension funds, and index funds allocate stocks based on these indices, so a company's inclusion or exclusion from an index may impact whether passive funds need to buy or sell, but it does not mean the stock will be delisted from Nasdaq or that the company is halting trading or going bankrupt.

Polymarket's rule states: if MicroStrategy is officially removed from the MSCI World Index or MSCI USA Index this year, or is moved to another MSCI index, the market settles as "yes".

MicroStrategy faces a risk because MSCI initiated an "non-operating company" eligibility consultation on August 3. The current MSCI rules primarily exclude investment funds and business development companies, while the new proposal aims to also exclude companies that heavily rely on holding non-operating assets, have limited operating activities, and rely on external financing for growth. The proposal will assess the proportion of operating assets, operating expenses, operating cash flow, fair value changes of non-operating assets, and the degree of reliance on external capital; existing index constituents must fail screening in two consecutive evaluation periods to be removed.

Although MicroStrategy still retains its enterprise software business, the company has a high percentage of Bitcoin in its assets. In recent years, it has raised funds and maintained its financial structure through issuing common stock, preferred stock, and selling Bitcoin, potentially categorizing it as a company "largely accumulating non-operating assets, relying on external capital for growth" under MSCI's new framework. As simulated with May 2026 data by MSCI, MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, and Yellow Cake are all flagged as potential deletions from the MSCI ACWI IMI, with MicroStrategy being the largest company among them.

However, the ACWI IMI simulation list does not equate to decisions already made for the MSCI World or USA indices. MSCI will conclude its consultation on September 30, with results expected by October 16 and any related changes to be implemented earliest in the November index review. In January 2026, MSCI also decided to temporarily refrain from the direct exclusion of digital asset treasury companies, opting for a broader assessment of non-operating companies instead.
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