Trump Says No Iran Negotiation Arrangement Yet, News Outlet Predicts U.S. Will Withdraw from Negotiations

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has placed a $1300 "Yes" position on "Will the US announce the termination of MOU negotiations this month?", with an average buy-in probability of 6.6% and the current "Yes" probability at 7.5%.

On August 17, the 60-day negotiation period set by the US-Iran MOU expired. The Associated Press reported that both sides have not reached a compromise on issues such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the US lifting sanctions, and the nuclear negotiations have not entered a substantive stage. On August 18, Trump stated that there are currently no negotiations with Iran or scheduled talks, emphasizing that the US maritime blockade against Iran remains "fully effective."

However, these statements alone are not sufficient to trigger market settlement. The rules are clear that actions such as pauses, indefinite suspensions, refusal to attend a specific meeting, or delivering a "negotiation stop" message through an intermediary do not constitute an official US withdrawal. Even if Trump says "there are no negotiations at the moment," as long as a formal announcement to terminate participation in the entire negotiation process is not made, it might still be considered a negotiation pause rather than a withdrawal.

Furthermore, on August 19, when asked at the White House about when negotiations with Iran would resume, Trump stated that the current situation is "fine," but negotiations might resume "at some point." On August 7, a US official also stated that the US-Iran-Oman arrangement regarding the Strait of Hormuz is making progress, and if an agreement facilitates unimpeded commercial shipping, the US will lift the blockade on Iranian ports.
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