Weekly Macro Outlook: Fed Meeting Minutes Alongside PMI Data, Can KOSPI Sustain Its Tech-Led Rally? Market Focused on Three Key Variables

BlockBeats News, August 17th. Over the past week, global financial markets saw an overall increase in risk appetite. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit new highs, with the main theme of trading shifting from defense and safe-haven assets to interest rate cut expectations and AI profit-taking. Tech stocks and semiconductor stocks led the gains. The South Korean KOSPI index surged by 11.5%, ending seven consecutive weeks of decline and reentering a technical bull market. The US Dollar Index remained relatively stable throughout the week. Improved inflation data led to a reduction in the Fed's rate hike expectations, and on Friday, unexpected negative growth in retail sales accelerated the dollar's decline.

This week's focus is on three key variables:

First, whether there will be a real breakthrough in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on shipping routes and are planning to establish a shipping map, but the US did not participate in the negotiations and has a tough stance. The actual shipping volume remains very low. If a joint statement is reached, the US signals the lifting of sanctions, and the shipping volume continues to improve, geopolitical risk premium in oil prices may fall, leading to a restoration of risk appetite.

Second, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July meeting early Thursday morning. The market will focus on whether there are more members inclined to raise interest rates apart from the public dissenters, and officials' assessment of the impact of energy and tariffs on spreading to service prices.

Third, the flash PMI figures for Europe and the US released intensively on Friday. A weakening trend would further solidify expectations of the Fed holding steady in September.

Key Events This Week (Beijing Time):

Tuesday

20:15 US ADP Employment Change for the week ending August 1st

Wednesday

02:00 Fed's release of July Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 15th, US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Friday

07:30 Japan July Core CPI YoY

21:45 US August Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash, US August Markit Services PMI Flash