Suspected ‘Anomalous’ Address Sparks War of Attrition as Polymarket Trader Goes Long $13 Million on Crude Oil

BlockBeats News, July 30, according to Hyperinsight monitoring, Polymarket trader "xm39" attempted a $803 trial position yesterday on the "U.S. will invade Iran by 2027" Yes share. Starting this morning, within about 6 hours, the trader completed 223 consecutive buy orders. Out of the trader's historical 42 positions, 50 completed trades, and latest 500 activities, this is the first major bet on war and macro geopolitical events.

At the time of writing, the trader currently holds a total of 806,700 Yes shares, with a position cost of around $223,000, an average price of $0.2763, and an unrealized loss of about -4.12%.

According to monitoring, the trader "xm39" is highly linked to an external wallet starting with 0x40f, associated with the Hyperliquid trading address, currently the largest long position in WTI crude oil on the platform. This address also appears to be continuously betting on the crude oil market amid escalating war using Hyperliquid and has opened a crude oil contract for the first time in almost a year.

Yesterday, the trader added a total of 133,300 CL WTI crude oil contracts, with a transaction volume of around $10.791 million, a weighted average price of $80.93. Today, they further increased their position by 2,581.3 contracts.

At the time of writing, the whale holds a 20x leveraged long position of 155,200 CL contracts, with a position value of around $13.22 million, an entry price of $81.80 per contract, a floating profit of approximately $510,500, and a return rate of about 80.3%. As they continue to roll over their position, the liquidation price has been pushed up to $81.56, surpassing the entry price.

Funds flow data shows: today, the whale withdrew approximately $246,400 in four transfers to the 0x2000 system address (HyperEVM).

The first $100,000 withdrawal occurred early this morning, and about 1 minute later, "xm39" started adding to their position on Polymarket. The net outflow of $246,400 is highly consistent with the $222,200 the trader heavily invested in the prediction market today.

From address associations, operation timing, and fund size, this portion of funds aligns well with being used for betting on "U.S. will invade Iran by 2027" post cross-chain.