Probability of Rate Hike Nearing 40% Next Week? Triple Pressure from Rising Oil Prices, Higher U.S. Yields, and Stronger Dollar Boosting Rate Hike Prospects

BlockBeats News, July 24th, the current market is facing a triple pressure at the macro level. Tonight, the oil price touched $100 per barrel, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged above 4.7%, and the U.S. Dollar Index once again rose above 101. The rising oil price is pushing up inflation expectations; the increase in U.S. Treasury yields is weighing down stock valuations; and the strengthening U.S. dollar is tightening global liquidity.

At the same time, the market's pricing for the possibility of a rate hike at next week's Fed meeting has risen again. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in July is 37.9%, while the probability of unchanged rates is 62.1%, and a rate cut is no longer possible.

The Fed will announce its rate decision next week on July 30th (Thursday) at 02:00 AM Beijing time.