After T-0 Ignition Failure, SpaceX Makes Another Bold Move, Cleverly Predicts Starship's 13th Test Flight will End in Explosion

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a SpaceX-themed smart money has invested $4.5k in the "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy Will Explode?" market, with an average buy-in probability of 78.4%. Currently, the "Yes" probability is 82.0%.

1walrus has invested $4.5k, with the most relevant category being Tech in this market, with a net profit of $26.6k. Out of 224 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 124/224 (55%), with 44 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $48, and this investment is 94.9 times that median amount.

SpaceX is scheduled to conduct Starship's 13th flight test as early as July 23 at 18:45 EDT, corresponding to July 24 at 06:45 Beijing time. Flight 13 will utilize Booster 20 and Ship 40 for the first time, with tasks including deploying 20 Starlink V3 satellites, performing a mid-air engine restart, and attempting a controlled splashdown of the Super Heavy in the Gulf of Mexico.

This is the second launch attempt of Flight 13, and this mission will not involve a booster catching attempt using the launch tower arm. Instead, it will focus on ascent, stage separation, return-to-launch-site maneuver, and offshore landing burn. The high probability of an explosion event is related to the settlement rules: the statistical window starts from fueling and extends until 60 minutes after the booster touches the sea; even if the flight proceeds normally, if the booster tips over and explodes after touching down in the sea, it will still settle as a "Yes".

In Flight 12, the Super Heavy experienced hot gas thruster damage, 5 engines failed to reignite, and incorrect alarm parameters, leading to a high-speed crash into the Gulf of Mexico and explosion. SpaceX has made modifications for Flight 13 regarding the reignition hardware and engine alarm logic. However, a new ignition anomaly revealed during the initial launch attempt still makes the successful return of Booster 20 the most anticipated aspect of this test.

Note: Based on the trader's historical trading behavior, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur and may have stop-loss or take-profit actions at some point after opening the position.

Account:
0x6560abb717a8e5f3afaacd1a31e9c03eed71e164

Total Investment: $4.5k
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