The <i>CLARITY Act</i>’s new version prohibits officials from issuing coins, making it difficult for the two influential lawmakers to sign the CLARITY agreement within the year.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, two wise investors have put in $6.2k on the outcome of the "Clarity Act" becoming law in 2026, with an average buy-in probability of 56.3%. The current probability of "Yes" stands at 37.5%.

0x32b61f77 has invested $4.3k, with the top relevant category in this market being cryptocurrency, resulting in a net profit of $8.5k. Out of 106 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 83/106 (78%), with 32 trades having a buy-in price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.451-$0.6), the median of historical investment amounts is $100, making this investment 43.2 times the median.
whig has invested $1.8k, with the top relevant category in this market being politics, resulting in a net profit of $220k. Out of 668 settled trades in this category, the success rate is 416/668 (62%), with 195 trades having a buy-in price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.551-$0.7), the median of historical investment amounts is $1.2k.

On July 23rd, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that Republican senators in the U.S. held a briefing call with industry stakeholders and released a new version of the "CLARITY Act." The ethical framework was developed through negotiations between the White House and Republican senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno, lacking Democratic support.

The new text aims to prohibit officials such as the President, Vice President, Congress members, federal judges, and their spouses from receiving compensation through issuing or sponsoring digital assets during their term, with the relevant provisions valid until January 20, 2029. Constrained officials must also sell off their crypto assets and investments in crypto companies or place them in blind trusts beyond their control; disclosure is required for crypto asset sales over $1000.

The new text also includes a section on crypto crime enforcement, increasing funding for state and local investigations and mandating that stablecoin issuers lawfully freeze, seize, destroy, or reissue tokens. The bankruptcy clause specifies that in the event of an exchange or custodian's bankruptcy, customer digital assets remain the customers' property and should not be included in the company's bankruptcy estate.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on the actual outcome of events and may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior after opening a position at a certain point in time.

Accounts:
0x32b61f77818ee062a1cf0ad4312752879e1a2f9f
0x40cfb29411d29f4fa0908f2a121297042cccd21d

Total Investment: $6.2k
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