Grayscale: Bitcoin May Have Bottomed Out If the Fed Stops Raising Rates

BlockBeats News, July 23rd. Grayscale's Director of Research, Zach Pandl, stated in a post that there are currently two main views on when the Bitcoin bear market will end: one follows the "four-year cycle," and the other considers Bitcoin as a mature asset driven by macro factors.

The "four-year cycle" view believes that the halving event is still the core driver of the Bitcoin price cycle. Historically, Bitcoin has usually peaked about a year after the cycle top, bottomed about 2.5 years after the halving, with an average cumulative drawdown of about 80%. Following this pattern, Bitcoin in this cycle may still experience further declines and bottom out in September or October.

The other view argues that the future price of Bitcoin will be more influenced by economic growth, real interest rates, and Federal Reserve policy changes like other major assets. In the past, several Bitcoin bear markets have usually coincided with economic slowdowns or rising real interest rates. This current decline has also occurred against the backdrop of rising rate hike expectations and increasing real interest rates.

Pandl stated that he is more inclined towards the macro-driven view. If the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates and economic growth remains stable, the Bitcoin price may have already bottomed out.