CPI Fell 0.4% Month-on-Month in June, 100% Win Rate Account Predicts Unchanged July Interest Rate

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a smart money placed a $109.1k bet on "Will the Federal Reserve keep the upper limit of the federal funds rate unchanged after the July 2026 meeting?" with an average buy probability of 76.0%. The current probability of "Yes" is 92.5%.

Address 0x8b4bca1d placed a $109k bet, with the top relevant category in this market being the Federal Reserve, with a net profit of $24.1k. Their win rate in this category, based on 10 settled trades, is 10/10 (100%), with 0 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95.

Yesterday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a 0.4% decrease in the June CPI on a month-over-month basis, with the year-over-year increase dropping from 4.2% to 3.5%; the core CPI remained unchanged on a month-over-month basis, with the year-over-year increase falling to 2.6%, both below market expectations. Following the data release, the CME FedWatch July rate hike probability rapidly dropped to around 10% to 16%, while the probability of keeping the upper limit at 3.75% unchanged rose to over 80%. Federal Reserve Chair Warsh and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, although emphasizing that one month of data is insufficient to confirm controlled inflation, the latest readings reduced the urgency of an immediate July rate hike, with more expectations of policy tightening being deferred to September.

Prior to this, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if core inflation shows elevated data again, the Fed may need to raise rates soon, mentioning that several months of upward inflation cannot be dismissed as noise anymore. After the remarks, the market briefly priced in about a 40% probability of a July rate hike. Ahead of the data release, a Reuters survey expected a 3.8% year-over-year growth in June CPI and a 2.8% year-over-year growth in core CPI; although lower than May, concerns linger in the market about energy prices, tariffs, and service price pressures keeping inflation elevated.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of events and may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior after opening positions at a certain point in time.

Account Details:
0x8b4bca1d794779e66e023d44391b2a86c5ab541b

Total Investment: $109.1k
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