Bitunix Analyst: Markets Await NFP Verification — the Fed Maintains a Data-Driven Policy Stance

BlockBeats News, July 2nd. Global markets remain in a wait-and-see mode, with capital focused on the upcoming US June Non-Farm Payrolls report. Consensus expects hiring to slow from the prior month, but whether the labor market retains its resilience—and whether wages and unemployment show new movement—will directly shape the market's read on the Fed's forward policy path. Ahead of the release, ADP employment came in below expectations, though corporate layoffs remained near cycle lows, indicating that the US labor market has yet to show clear signs of weakening. Markets still need the NFP print to provide further confirmation.

At the global central bank forum, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated that recent inflation expectations and inflation risk have moderated, but reiterated that the Fed will not provide forward policy guidance. He indicated that balance-sheet runoff will continue, while confirming that the dot plot will remain a policy communication tool in the near term. On balance, the Fed did not release any clear policy-pivot signal—it continued to emphasize that policy will be adjusted based on incoming economic data. This puts market focus back on employment, inflation, and the subsequent data prints themselves, rather than front-running policy outcomes.

On the global liquidity front, Japanese monetary policy remains an important variable. Recent improvements in business conditions and inflation expectations continue to support the view that the Bank of Japan may hike again this year. However, the yen remains near a historic relative low—a sign that global capital continues to be primarily influenced by US dollar rates and the US-Japan yield differential. Should Japan's policy normalization advance further, it could shift global carry trades and cross-market capital flows—becoming an important factor in the global liquidity environment ahead.

In crypto, Bitcoin remains range-bound and market risk appetite has yet to visibly improve. Against a backdrop of the Fed maintaining data-driven decision-making, ongoing uncertainty in Japanese monetary policy, and global capital waiting for key economic data verification, near-term market sentiment will remain dominated by macro events. The upcoming NFP print and subsequent Fed commentary will remain the key focal points shaping global risk assets and crypto volatility.