Bitcoin Faces $4.4 Billion Supply Overhang, Institutional Demand Waning Sours Recovery Prospects

BlockBeats News, June 30th. Despite Bitcoin stabilizing around $60,000 recently, the rebound outlook remains bleak. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin ETFs have sold off 71,600 BTC this month (worth over $4 billion), setting a new record for the largest monthly outflow in history. At the same time, corporate and digital asset custodians have only increased their holdings by 7,500 BTC. Combined with daily mining supply, the net shortfall is around 77,000 BTC (around $4.4 billion), creating a significant "oversupply."

Against this backdrop, the largest Bitcoin digital asset company, MicroStrategy (MSTR), announced a Bitcoin liquidation plan on Monday, authorizing the sale of up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin. This move is mainly aimed at establishing a $25.5 billion USD reserve to cover preferred stock dividends and interest payments. Analysts believe that if fund flows do not turn positive and institutional demand does not pick up, any price rebound could be short-lived. The only factor currently supporting Bitcoin is the bullish USD positioning in the forex market.

In other news, the UK regulatory authority has reduced stablecoin issuers' capital buffer requirement from 2% to 1%; the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the USD/JPY exchange rate has dropped to -0.90, reaching the lowest level since the end of 2022, posing a challenge to the "arbitrage trading" theory; international oil prices are experiencing the largest quarterly decline since 2020, with the market focusing on the progress of US-Iran talks.