Bitunix Analyst:With Policy and Geopolitical Variables Intertwined,Global Markets Await More Confirmation Signals

BlockBeats News, June 30. Global markets continue to digest the impact of Middle East developments, US policy moves, and signals from major central banks. The US Supreme Court's latest ruling expanded the President's authority to remove certain federal agency officials, but at the same time blocked the removal of Federal Reserve governors—keeping markets focused on Fed policy independence. Separately, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983, while South Korea has announced a large-scale push to build AI data centers—a clear sign that global capital continues to invest in AI infrastructure.

The Middle East situation has maintained its ceasefire framework, but uncertainty remains. Iran has stated that there are no plans for formal talks with the US in the near term, and that the priority for now is implementing the bilateral memorandum of understanding—even as Tehran continues to strengthen its management of Strait of Hormuz transit. Meanwhile, Trump has stated that US and Iranian representatives will meet in Doha. The public statements from the two sides on negotiation progress remain noticeably out of alignment. Markets are also watching elevated shipping insurance premiums, Hormuz transit restrictions, and global energy restocking demand—meaning that even with oil back near $70, energy supply chain risk has not been fully eliminated.

On the central bank front, RBA meeting minutes maintained a hawkish lean, emphasizing that additional hikes are not ruled out if necessary—though markets believe that falling oil prices and slowing growth may reduce the probability of further tightening. Elsewhere, the yen has broken below the key FX zone where the Japanese government intervened in 2024, putting Tokyo once again under pressure on whether to intervene—a reflection that major economies continue to feel the capital-flow impact of high rates and a strong dollar.

In crypto, Bitcoin remains in a $58,060–$61,931 range, with overall sentiment firmly in wait-and-see mode. Against a backdrop of unclear global policy signals, an energy market still influenced by geopolitics, and diverging central bank policy paths, short-term capital risk appetite remains vulnerable to macro events. The market will continue to watch progress in US-Iran developments, the policy trajectory of major central banks, and whether the global liquidity environment shows any new shifts—all of which remain the key factors to track for risk-asset volatility ahead.