Castle Securities Forecasts Fed to Hike Rates by 75 Basis Points This Year, Earliest Tightening Cycle Could Start in September

BlockBeats News, June 17th - Castle Securities' Chief Macro Strategist, Frank Flight, predicted that the Federal Reserve may initiate a new round of interest rate hikes within the year, with a total increase of 75 basis points, possibly starting as early as September.

The report pointed out that against the backdrop of persistent and broadening inflation, multiple factors are reinforcing price pressures, including loose financial conditions, supply chain disruptions, a warming labor market, and an investment frenzy in artificial intelligence. Even though recent easing of the Middle East situation has led to a drop in oil prices, previous conflicts have solidified inflation expectations structurally.

Flight anticipates that the new Fed Chair, Kevin Wash, will signal a hawkish stance at his first policy meeting, potentially reversing market expectations of a rate cut in September. He also predicts that September, December, and early 2023 could all be potential windows for rate hikes.

In terms of the policy path, Castle Securities believes that the June policy meeting may remove dovish language and strengthen the tightening signal through an updated dot plot, expecting many officials to raise their inflation projections to above 3% while lowering their unemployment rate forecasts.

Based on Taylor Rule calculations, the institution believes that the optimal policy path for the current economic environment would involve a cumulative 75 basis point increase within the year, with a possible policy shift signal in July, paving the way for further hikes.

Furthermore, a recent Duke University survey indicates that a majority of former Fed officials believe that due to energy shocks and persistent high inflation, there is a necessity for further rate hikes by the Fed within the year, although some respondents also point out the risk of a summer slowdown in the economy.