1 smart contract bought into the "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by June 15th"

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, 10 minutes ago, a Wise Money invested $43.4k in "Will the US and Iran reach a permanent peace agreement by the end of June 15th?" with an average buy probability of 69.6%. Currently, the probability for "Yes" is 80.6%.

0x27e1571e invested $43.4k, and the most relevant category in this market is Iran Ceasefire, with a net profit of $16.5k. Out of 2 settled transactions in this category, the win rate is 2/2 (100%), with 2 transactions where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.701-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $22.0k.

In the latest 24 hours, the US, Iran, and a third-party mediator have continuously released signals indicating close agreement. Trump stated that both parties have reached an agreement and ended the war; Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the agreement is "closer than ever"; while Pakistan mentioned that the agreement text is ready for signing.

As per the rules, this market requires the US and Iran to reach a clear agreement that explicitly states the end of military hostilities between the two countries or a permanent cessation of hostilities. There are only two ways to meet these conditions: both parties signing or formally adopting a written agreement that meets the requirements, or the US and Iranian governments simultaneously publicly confirming that a required permanent peace agreement has been finally reached.

Based on current public statements, the US side's language is close to the rule requirements. Trump has used phrases like "agreement is complete" and "war is over," which are significantly stronger than mere "negotiations have progressed" or "close to reaching an agreement."

However, the Iranian side's current public stance still mainly revolves around phrases like "approaching an agreement" and "agreement is ready." This market has already gone through 2 rounds of proposals and rejections.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, it is judged that this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but engaging in profit-taking and stop-loss behaviors after opening a position at a certain point in time.

Account:
0x27e1571ea7822785ae6cf4e904ea0ec0eef2508b

Total Investment: $43.4k
---------------------------------
See the future sooner, follow @PolyBeats_Bot
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN