2026 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Endgame: Hike Dominance over Cut, Today's CPI Report Plants Hawkish Pivot Seeds

BlockBeats News, June 11th. Today's release of the May CPI report has set the stage for the Fed to tilt towards a more hawkish stance, with policy discussions now extending to whether a rate hike should be back on the table. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, the current probability of the Fed holding rates steady for the full year until the end of 2026 is 30.6%. The probability of a total of 25 basis points rate cuts throughout the year stands at only 1.2%, while the probability of a total of 25 basis points rate hikes is at 42.9%. The probabilities for cumulative rate hikes of 50, 75, and 100 basis points are 20.9%, 4.1%, and 0.3%, respectively.

Furthermore, the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut at the Fed's next meeting (June) is 3.8%.