US-Iran Conflict Raises Inflation Expectations and US Bond Yields, Potentially Adding Billions of Dollars to US Debt Interest Payments

BlockBeats News, May 24th. According to the Financial Times, as the US-Iran conflict continues to drive up oil prices and inflation expectations, US Treasury yields have risen to their highest level since 2007, potentially requiring American taxpayers to bear billions of dollars in additional interest expenses. Data shows that the US 10-year Treasury yield has now risen to 4.58%, above the 4.13% baseline level previously predicted by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO); the 30-year US bond yield has also reached a new high since 2007.

If the current yield levels persist until the end of this fiscal year, the US fiscal interest payments will increase by an additional $8 billion; if they persist throughout the entire 2027 fiscal year, the additional interest cost will exceed $30 billion. The market is concerned that rising oil prices and expanding budget deficits will further boost inflation and intensify US bond sell-offs. Some Wall Street investors believe that the Federal Reserve's current response to inflation risks is inadequate, with the "bond vigilantes" now regaining dominance in the market.

In addition, as long-term interest rates rise rapidly, US mortgage rates are also climbing, prompting discussions in the market about the Treasury increasing the issuance of ultra-short-term debt or the Fed restarting similar "Operation Twist" interventions.