Analysis: The on-chain loss of BTC hit 10.6 million coins at the bottom of the two previous bear markets. This amount corresponds to a price of $60,000 in the current cycle.

BlockBeats News, May 23rd, Analyst Murphy stated that at the market bottoms during two bear markets in February 2019 and January 2022, the BTC unrealized loss count was both 10.6 million. If this pattern continues in the current bear market, the corresponding bottom price would be around $60,000. Whenever the circulating BTC unrealized loss reaches a certain critical value, the supply side may experience depletion, causing the price to find support. On February 5th, 2026, when BTC fell to $60,000, the unrealized loss count was close to 9.93 million. If it returns to 10.6 million, the unrealized loss count based on the current BTC chip structure will reach 10.6 million, coinciding with the previous bear market bottom.