The new account has wagered $6,400 on "Will Renan Santos Win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election" - "Yes".
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has invested $6,400 in the question "Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?", with an average buy-in probability of 14.2%. The current probability of "Yes" is 13.7%.
Reuters reported on May 19 that in the latest national poll by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, Lula leads with 47%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 34.3% and Renan Santos at 6.9%, surpassing Romeu Zema at 5.2% and Ronaldo Caiado at 2.7%. The Brazilian presidential election rule is a runoff between the top two if no candidate reaches a majority in the first round.
In the cross-tabulation data from AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, among voters aged 16 to 24, Renan Santos has 36.1% support, higher than Lula's 28.2% and Flávio Bolsonaro's 24.5%. On Polymarket, Renan's winning probability has increased from 5.5% on the 12th to around 14% today, making him the third presidential candidate, behind Flávio Bolsonaro at 23%. This indicates that he has become the most visibly favored "new right-wing" candidate following the negative news about Flávio.
Account:
0x38c74b8f4db0ab54bba5e5db72eafd46d0f46a6e
Total Investment: $6.4k
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