3 Oracle Wallet addresses bet $25.8 thousand on the outcome of "Will the Cuban regime fall in 2026" to predict "No."

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money have invested $25.8k in "Will the Cuban regime fall in 2026?" with an average buy-in probability of 78.2%, and the current probability of "Yes" is 19.5%.

0xe52c0a13 invested $17.6k, with the best-performing category in this market being Geopolitics, with a net profit of $89.2k. Out of 70 settled trades in this category, their win rate was 62/70 (89%), with 8 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751-$0.9), the median historical investment amount was $3.6k.

paddaa invested $2.3k, with the best-performing category in this market also being Geopolitics, with a net profit of $77.1k. Out of 1089 settled trades in this category, their win rate was 615/1089 (56%), with 223 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount was $807.

0xfffadf38 invested $5.9k. They had 308 settled trades with a total profit of $444k.

On the 14th, Reuters reported live from Havana that protests erupted in various parts of Cuba, with protesters taking to the streets due to over 40 hours of power outages in some areas. However, a resident was quoted saying, "We just want three hours of electricity, that's all; this is not a political issue." At several protest sites where power was restored, the crowd cheered and quickly dispersed. While police were present in large numbers, they mainly stood by and observed.

On the 16th, NPR reporter Eyder Peralta said he found Cuban officials' statements quite consistent: Cuba is willing to undergo economic reforms, even to accept U.S. investment, but will not "abandon the president, change the one-party system, or give up the socialist ideology" under U.S. pressure. University of Florida Cuban history scholar Lillian Guerra's assessment is that the situation is extremely dangerous, but both the U.S. and Cuba fear explosive consequences that would lead to a popular uprising in Cuba and a humanitarian and immigration crisis for the U.S.

On the 17th, Reuters reported that CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended all bookings to and from Cuba, potentially affecting up to 60% of Cuba's shipping volume, delivering a new blow to the Cuban economy. However, sources also mentioned that shipping companies may have reached an agreement with the Trump administration to only continue serving the Cuban private sector, aligning with the recent strategy of the Trump administration to "have Cuban private enterprise surpass state-owned enterprises."

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior at a certain point after opening a position.

Accounts:
0xe52c0a1327a12edc7bd54ea6f37ce00a4ca96924
0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71
0xfffadf38a520cd5a0035ff52d7fceb436a08864b

Total Investment: $25.8k
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