Citrini: Investing in AI Infrastructure is Safer, Future Market Trends Are Hard to Predict

BlockBeats News, May 18th - Citrini Research, the organization behind the "AI Doomsday Report," has recently expressed a new perspective. They believe that all current AI-related outcomes are highly uncertain, and the potential impact on the future could vary significantly. A minor assumption made today could lead us into a completely different world tomorrow. This uncertainty extends not only to hardware such as computing power, chips, and data centers but also to questions like whether there will be a severe memory shortage in the next ten years, for which two equally valid opposing reasons can be proposed. The use of AI by consumers and the overall state of the AI market in a decade are equally unclear.

For example, Anthropic could potentially dominate the market all the way from underlying infrastructure to the top-layer application software, or major AI labs could be marginalized, with the real money-makers being cloud providers, specific application developers, or as-yet-unseen newcomers. In early 2023, Citrini Research, optimistic about AI, decided to invest only in "pick and shovel" (referring to infrastructure) because they couldn't predict what AI would look like in ten years. However, as long as AI continues to advance, more hardware and computing power will undoubtedly be needed, making this a relatively safe bet.

Three years have passed, and what was expected to be a clearer vision of the future has instead become increasingly blurred. However, this is not entirely a bad thing—it indicates that there are still many opportunities, and everyone in the wave of change needs to be flexible in their thinking and able to keep up with new developments. Tools related to Agentic AI have performed well, but no one can say for sure what form AI will truly take in five years when it comes to fruition.