Polymarket Once Again Caught in Oracle Manipulation Controversy, as 'Anchor Pregnancy' Market Sees Trading Volume Exceed $16.46 Million

BlockBeats News, May 1st, the cryptocurrency prediction market platform Polymarket once again faced controversy due to the UMA oracle governance mechanism. Surrounding the prediction market for "Will Clavicular be pregnant in 2026," the current total trading volume has reached $16.46 million, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $4.5 million, but the market outcome is still in a disputed state.

The current price of the "Yes" share in this market is as high as $0.97, however, the market rules clearly state that "joking or untrustworthy pregnancy statements do not count towards the outcome." Some traders believe that the event has already been confirmed to be a "No," but a large amount of funds continue to buy into the "Yes."

Senior Polymarket trader Domahhhh posted, stating that UMA has devolved from a "decentralized oracle" to a "misinformation engine controlled by a few whales." On-chain data shows that the top 20 addresses in the "Yes" camp hold a total of about $2.54 million, higher than the "No" camp's $1 million.

This dispute is also seen as a continuation of the long-standing conflict between UMA and Polymarket. Previously, markets including "Trump's phone call with Xi Jinping" and the "US-Ukraine mining agreement" have experienced severe discrepancies between UMA's voting results and actual events. In 2025, a market worth $7 million regarding the "US-Ukraine mining agreement" was even determined as a "Yes" despite the agreement not being signed, leading the community to label it as a "governance attack."

Currently, UMA's controversial arbitration mechanism still relies on a token holder voting model, with a few whale addresses criticized for having excessive influence. Meanwhile, Polymarket is advancing its in-house infrastructure and future POLY token plans, with the market generally believing that it is attempting to gradually reduce its reliance on UMA.