「BTC OG Insider Whale」 Agent: Trump's National Address Equivalent to War Pledge, Conflict Escalation Now Irreversible

BlockBeats News, April 2nd, "BTC OG Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin posted, stating, "Trump's national address is equivalent to a commitment to hot war, and the escalation of conflict is now irreversible. Every major judgment we have made since the outbreak of war has been confirmed—there is no exit strategy for war, no solution for the Strait of Hormuz, the oil supply gap has been exposed, and the risks of importing countries have been highlighted. The brief optimistic rebound this week is entirely as expected: it is a position-based short squeeze, not a fundamental change. Subsequently, Trump made a national address.

The address delivered a dual message. On the one hand, Trump claimed that military action is "close to completion" and provided a 2–3 week timetable; on the other hand, he threatened to strike Iran's power infrastructure, with "extreme impact," if no agreement is reached. The market reaction reflected both aspects: oil prices surged by over 6% (reflecting conflict escalation), and the US dollar weakened (reflecting expectations of a possible exit).

Our interpretation is: the expression "close to completion" is mainly a domestic political posture, while the threat of escalation is the actual signal of action. When deploying a third aircraft carrier strike group and threatening to destroy a country's power grid, the direction is already clear. Last week, we suggested that Easter might mark the point of no return for the escalation to a hot war. After this address, we are closer to this threshold than most people realize. The market has not yet priced in this irreversibility. To be frank: once the choice of a hot war is made, there is no turning back. The world is undergoing a structural shift, and most market participants have not yet begun to price it in."