Multiple Institutions Raise US Economic Recession Probability

BlockBeats News, March 26th, according to CCTV News, due to the delayed US-Iran conflict posing additional downside risks to the US economy, several institutions have recently raised the probability of the US economy falling into a recession.

According to US sources on the 25th, Moody's Analytics model shows that the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%; Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasted probability to 30%; Wilmington Trust and EY-Parthenon respectively predict the probability of the US economy falling into a recession at 45% and 40%. Under normal circumstances, this probability should be around 20%.

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, stated that the worrying aspect is that the recession risk is "uncomfortably high and still rising," and an economic recession is now a real threat. If the current high oil prices persist until late May to the end of the second quarter, the "US economy will fall into a recession."