A certain trader, assessing the escalating risk of US-Iran conflict, added $10 million to their cross-market trade today.

BlockBeats News, August 17th, according to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) monitoring, the xm39 geopolitical conflict trader, since tracking for the first time on July 30th, Polymarket's probability of "U.S. invading Iran by 2027" has decreased from its initial entry range of about 27.63% to 16.5%, but instead has continued to add leverage, expanding the trades from long-only crude oil to a "long oil, short stock" combination.

Currently, xm39 has a total investment of about $321.1 thousand in this prediction market, a 44% increase from the initial monitoring, with an average cost down to 24.49%; the position is valued at about $216.3 thousand, with an unrealized loss of about $104.8 thousand, a 32.6% loss. This morning, it continued to buy 25 trades with a probability of about 16%.

At the same time, its Hyperliquid position, from a single $13.22 million WTI long at the first tracking, has expanded to about $17.606 million:

Long WTI with 20x leverage about $7.299 million, with an unrealized profit of about $70.5 thousand;

Short XYZ100 with 30x leverage about $10.307 million, with an unrealized loss of about $13.4 thousand.

This morning, xm39 simultaneously added about $2.867 million WTI long and $7.128 million XYZ100 short, and maintained about $2.664 million buy orders for crude oil at $79.06 to $81.21.