This Week’s Macro Outlook: Stagflation Ghost Reappears, CPI and PCE Data Key Variables

BlockBeats News, as the situation in Iran further deteriorates, the uncertainty surrounding the future direction led to a sharp market volatility last week. Recent data suggest the Fed will have to address rising inflation and falling employment to curb the potential stagflation. Here are the key points the market will focus on this week (all in Beijing time):

Monday 23:00, US February NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectation;

Wednesday 20:30, US February Unadjusted CPI YoY, Unadjusted Core CPI YoY; US February Seasonally Adjusted CPI MoM, Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI MoM;

Friday 15:00, UK January 3-Month GDP MoM, January Manufacturing/Industrial Production MoM, January Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance;

Friday 20:30, US January Core PCE Price Index YoY/MoM, US January Personal Spending MoM, US Q4 Real GDP Annualized QoQ Revised, US January Durable Goods Orders MoM;

Friday 22:00, US January JOLTs Job Openings, US March 1-Year Inflation Expectation Preliminary, US March UoM Consumer Sentiment Preliminary.

If Core CPI and Core PCE Price Index MoM are stronger than expected, it may further support the US dollar; conversely, weak data may weigh on the US dollar, assisting in the rebound of spot gold. In addition, Oracle (ORCL.N) will release earnings report after the US market closes on Tuesday. (FX168)