Wintermute: Despite a brief rebound on Monday, the market remains fragile, so caution is advised

BlockBeats News, March 3rd, Wintermute released a market commentary stating that the Iran geopolitical conflict has caused significant volatility in risk assets. For cryptocurrency, the weekend's downturn digested the first wave of geopolitical panic, and the rebound came from the market's belief that Bitcoin has already retraced 45% from its all-time high, with most of the losses already absorbed by the market. However, the impact of the energy factor has been underestimated. Persistently high oil prices may keep inflation elevated, while central banks around the world were originally hoping for inflation to cool down, which may further delay the U.S. interest rate cut. Cryptocurrency is in a disadvantaged position in this game.

Despite the recent inflow of ETFs, looking at the current trading situation, institutional participation is significantly lower than the trading range of $85,000 to $95,000 between November last year and September this year. At that time, institutional trading was more active, especially when the price was falling. But now, at the current price level, buying interest is clearly lacking. The market appears very fragile.

Finally, altcoins continue to follow the typical bear market pattern, as positive performance is very short-lived, investors lack the willingness to chase alpha, so most altcoins are unlikely to see a more sustained uptrend.

Wintermute believes that despite a brief rebound in cryptocurrency on Monday, the market remains fragile, and volatility is rising again. In the current environment where the growth risk premium continues to rise and the Fed is unable to intervene, cryptocurrency, as a high beta growth asset, remains under pressure. The outflow of ETF funds (although currently temporarily halted) confirms this point. This is the reality of the recent period.

Wintermute advises investors to be cautious at the moment. The market's focus is mainly on conflict news, especially any developments regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz or any easing of hostile actions. If the conflict lasts longer than expected, the rise in energy costs could reshape interest rate expectations and put broad pressure on risk assets.