Three Suspicious Accounts Bet $74.5K That the US-Iran Ceasefire Will Not Happen Soon, 44% Chance of Ceasefire Before March 15

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 3 suspicious accounts have collectively wagered $74.5k on the "no" outcome at multiple time points in the "US-Iran Ceasefire" market. Currently, the probability of "Will the US and Iran reach a ceasefire by March 15th" is 44%.

Among these 3 accounts, 1 is a new account, while the other 2 accounts had previously profited $120k and $96k, respectively, from betting on the "US strikes Iran" related events.

The US senior officials have issued a series of strong statements, essentially ruling out the possibility of short-term diplomatic mediation. In a recent statement, US President Trump reiterated that the fundamental goal of this military action is to achieve a regime change in Iran, and they will not cease pressure until this strategic objective is met. Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Pete Hekseges also stated publicly that the US military strikes are still progressing as planned, and there are currently no negotiation plans or timetables regarding a ceasefire.

Accounts:
0x2120ea0323fcf5446233056467fdb852b4b12647
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65
0xea7957606f259bcba522a4681494555547a7a9cc

Total Position: $74.5k
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