Hezbollah's Chance of Attacking Israel Before March 7 Reaches 63%, Killing of Haneen Attallah Crosses Armed Group's Red Line

According to PolyBeats monitor, the probability of the event "Will Hezbollah attack Israel before March 7" on the prediction market Polymarket is currently 59%.

Hezbollah, a Shiite armed group based in Lebanon, has long received funding, weapons, and strategic guidance from Iran, making it the most powerful military force in the Middle East.

On February 26, prior to the attack, Hezbollah publicly defined its "red lines" for engagement: if the US or Israel's strike against Iran is limited to degrading specific military capabilities, Hezbollah will show restraint; however, if the purpose of the strike is to "overthrow the Iranian regime" or "assassinate the Supreme Leader Khamenei," Hezbollah will fully engage and attack Israel.

Following yesterday's airstrike and Khamenei's confirmed death, Hezbollah, in its latest official statement, strongly condemned the "treacherous aggression" by the US and Israel, warning that Washington and Tel Aviv will face "severe consequences".
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