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Six Wallets Bet on US-Iran Attack Timing Make Over $1 Million in Profit, Spark Insider Trading Concerns
BlockBeats News, March 1st, predicted that before the United States launched a military strike against Iran on February 28th, there were 6 new wallets on the prediction market platform Polymarket that accurately bet on the "U.S. will strike Iran by the end of February" related contract, with a total profit of approximately $1 million, triggering market doubts about insider trading.
Blockchain analysis company Bubblemaps pointed out that these 6 wallets were all newly created in February, with almost all trades focused on the contract predicting the timing of the U.S. military strike, with some positions opened just hours before the explosion was first reported in Tehran, with contract buy-in prices as low as about $0.10. Analysts said that this kind of concentrated betting behavior before a major geopolitical event is similar in nature to "suspected insider trading" seen in previous prediction markets.
Data shows that during the U.S.-Iran conflict escalation, the total trading volume of related attack contracts on Polymarket exceeded $529 million, with the "February 28th attack" single-day contract trading volume alone reaching approximately $90 million, making it the most popular date option.
However, reports also indicated that the related accounts had previously incurred losses in other predictions, and the U.S. government had publicly warned weeks ago of the possibility of military action, so relying solely on the timing of the trades is not sufficient to directly prove any illegal activity.
Of note, U.S. Congressman Ritchie Torres is pushing for legislation called the "2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act," which aims to restrict government officials with access to non-public information from participating in related prediction market trades. Meanwhile, in recent years, Polymarket has faced regulatory restrictions or bans in multiple countries, including the Netherlands, France, Italy, and Singapore.
