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The Republican Party's odds of winning the Senate in the midterm elections have dropped to a new low of 60%

BlockBeats News, February 17th, according to Polymarket data, the probability of Trump's Republican Party winning the Senate in the midterms has dropped to a new low of 60%.


In addition, Democrats now also have an 83% probability of controlling the House.

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The House has been priced in by the market; the Senate map and oil prices are the real sources of asset expectation gaps.
19 historical samples support a post-election rebound, but the Senate outcome remains uncertain, and escalating tensions with Iran could shatter market optimism.
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