Polymarket Denies Venezuela Invasion, Sparks Community Backlash

BlockBeats News, January 7th. According to MarketWatch, the prediction market Polymarket has refused to settle bets on "U.S. to Invade Venezuela" and stated that the weekend events did not constitute an "invasion," leading to strong discontent among Polymarket's customers. As shown on the Polymarket official website, the trading volume for "U.S. Invades Venezuela" reached $10.78 million. The outcome for "U.S. Invades Venezuela by December 31st" has currently been determined as false with a trading volume of $2.76 million, and the probability for "by January 31st" is currently at 4%, with a trading volume of $6.08 million.

An anonymous user posted on the Polymarket website questioning, "What exactly constitutes an invasion?" and referred to the company as "Polyscam." Another user stated, "Polymarket has devolved into a completely arbitrary ruling. Words can be redefined arbitrarily, divorced from any accepted meaning, and facts can be outright ignored. A military invasion, the kidnapping of a head of state, and the takeover of a country are apparently not recognized as an invasion, which is clearly absurd." Someone wrote, "Is this a joke?" Another countered, "So this isn't considered an invasion just because the action was swift and the death toll was low?" (The New York Times cited a Venezuelan official saying that the death toll of this raid was 80.)

Polymarket explained on its website that "the market refers to a U.S. military action aimed at establishing control, as Trump mentioned 'running' Venezuela when referring to ongoing negotiations with the Venezuelan government, and this statement alone is not enough to classify the 'raid and extraction' operation carried out to capture Maduro as an invasion."

MarketWatch sought an explanation from Polymarket but did not receive a response. The reporter also emailed its 28-year-old crypto billionaire founder and CEO Shayne Coplan directly, but similarly received no reply.