10x Research: The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Persists, but the Driver Has Shifted from Halving to Politics and Liquidity

BlockBeats News, December 14th, according to Cointelegraph, Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x, stated that Bitcoin's four-year cycle still exists, but its main driving factors are no longer the halving, but rather political factors, liquidity environment, and the election cycle.

Thielen pointed out that the market highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all occurred in the fourth quarter. He stated that these highs are more correlated with the presidential election cycle and broader political uncertainty, rather than closely related to the timing of Bitcoin halving, as the halving event has occurred at varying times on the calendar in different years.

This year, against the background of the recent Fed rate cuts, Bitcoin did not regain strong momentum, as institutional investors have become the dominant force in the crypto market but with more cautious decision-making. With the Fed policy signals still wavering and overall liquidity tightening, the pace of fund inflows has visibly slowed down, weakening the momentum needed for price breakthroughs. Until liquidity significantly improves, Bitcoin is more likely to remain range-bound and sideways consolidated, rather than quickly entering a new parabolic uptrend.