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U.S. CPI Preview: If June CPI Data Comes in Milder Than Expected, Fed Seen Cutting Rates in September

BlockBeats News, July 15th, According to foreign media analysis, the June CPI report will significantly affect the market's expectations for the Fed's next policy move. Currently, the market expects that the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates in October. If the data comes in higher than expected, even significantly higher, the Fed will still wait until October to cut rates. However, if the data is milder than expected, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in July and cut rates in September. In summary, in terms of monetary policy, the June CPI report will clarify who is right between Trump and Powell. (FX678)

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The current interest rate hike probability is around 50%, with benign inflation data potentially prompting a wait-and-see approach. However, the hawkish stance still introduces uncertainty into the future policy outlook.
Core CPI at 0.2% month-over-month means the Fed stays put, while 0.3% triggers a rate hike.
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