Arthur Hayes: The market will collapse before entering a bull market after the rate cut, and ETH will perform strongly in the rate cut cycle

BlockBeats news, on September 18, BlockBeats reporter reported on the scene that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes participated in the first day of the TOKEN2049 main venue "Thoughts on Macroeconomics Current Events" (Thoughts on Macroeconomic Current Events) keynote speech, said:

The Federal Reserve is a huge mistake to cut interest rates when the US government is spending the most money. When inflation exceeds their target, and real GDP growth has exceeded 2% for about 8 to 9 quarters in the past, the situation is more complicated. Therefore, although I think many people are looking forward to rate cuts and think that this will drive the stock market and other markets up, this is not the case. I think the market will collapse a few days after the interest rate adjustment because it will narrow the interest rate gap between the US dollar and the yen.

I want to list some of the winners and losers from the decline in Treasury bond rates in the changing interest rate environment, as well as the interest income that can be generated by holding the safest legal assets. Winners include ENA, ETH, ETHFI, and PENDLE, I personally hold a lot of these assets, but I don't hold ONDO. Maelstrom's (his family office) portfolio is very well suited to a falling interest rate environment.

A lot of people think Ethereum is not going anywhere at all in this round. Solana has been very strong in the bull run of the past few months. The main argument for Ethereum is that it is an Internet bond, an Internet bond with a yield of 4%. So why would I invest in this bond when the Treasury yield is above this level? But if the Treasury yield drops rapidly, then investing in ETH becomes profitable. The gains in Ethereum will exceed the gains in the US dollar and the gains in Treasury bonds. The Fed will cut rates, the market will crash, and then reignite the bull run.