CPI data outlook: Economists expect the U.S. unadjusted CPI annual rate to fall to 2.6% in August, the lowest level since March 2021

BlockBeats news, September 11, the market's focus this week turned to inflation data, and the August CPI inflation report will be released at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on Wednesday. Economists expect the overall U.S. CPI to slow to 2.6% year-on-year in August from 2.9% in July. Several economists said that falling gas prices and stable food prices may help control overall inflation. If the forecast holds true, CPI inflation will hit a new low since March 2021. Core CPI inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to fall to 3.2% year-on-year. These forecasts are consistent with estimates from the Cleveland Fed's Nowcast model.

According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 30%. If inflation unexpectedly declines, expectations of a 50 basis point cut are likely to rise further. On the other hand, if the report is in line with expectations, or even shows a slight increase in inflationary pressure, it will not change the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate adjustment, but it may to some extent suppress the subsequent dovish remarks. (Jinshi)