There is a special whale in the Bitcoin Rich List, The US Government.

It is currently known to have 3 large Bitcoin addresses, ranking 5th, 8th and 13th respectively on the BitInfoCharts Top 100 Richest Bitcoin Addresses list (the BTC in the 13th address has been transfer, ranking has changed), the total amount of Bitcoin held is approximately 205,539 BTC.

The Bitcoins in these addresses were seized from illegal activities, involving three cases involving Bitfinex hackers, Darknet Silk Road, and Silk Road hacker James Zhong.

On March 14 this year, the U.S. government sold some Bitcoins from one of the addresses, worth nearly $300 million. At the time, it caused a movement of about -6% for the entire Bitcoin market. According to the document, the U.S. government plans to sell the remaining Bitcoins in this address again this year. This will become a key event that investors will pay attention to in the near future.

Now, let’s take a look at the current status of the U.S. government’s Bitcoin holding addresses. At the same time, let’s predict the timing, amount and possible impact of the next large-scale Bitcoin sale by the U.S. government.

Bitfinex Haker Case Address

The address currently holding the largest number of Bitcoins by the U.S. government is: bc1qazcm763858nkj2dj986etajv6wquslv8uxwczt, second only to Binance, Bitfinex and Robinhood's Cold Wallet Address.

The Bitcoins in this address were confiscated from the Bitfinex hackers. On August 2, 2016, Bitfinex suffered a hacker attack and approximately 120,000 BTC was stolen. Approximately 94,643 BTC have been recovered so far and were confiscated by the US government and deposited into this address on February 1, 2022.

Since this address was deposited into Bitcoin on February 1, 2022, there has been no other transaction activity.

The important information of the address is as follows:

• Balance: 94,643 BTC
• Initial Active Time: 2022-02-01
• In & Out Transactions:

In: 2022-02-01, +94,643 BTC

Silk Road Case Address

The address with the second largest number of Bitcoins held by the U.S. government is: bc1qa5wkgaew2dkv56kfvj49j0av5nml45x9ek9hz6

The source of the Bitcoins in this address On the Bitcoin Darknet Silk Road. The U.S. government has seized approximately 69,370 BTC from an unidentified hacker known as “Individual X.” The asset was later confirmed to be related to Silk Road and was deposited into the address in a one-time deposit on November 4, 2020.

This address has not had any other transaction activity since it was deposited into Bitcoin on November 4, 2020.

The important information of the address is as follows:

• Balance: 69,370 BTC
• Initial Active Time: 2020-11-04
• In & Out Transactions：

In: 2020-11-04, +69,370 BTC

James Zhong Case Address

The last address where the U.S. government holds a large amount of Bitcoin is: bc1qmxjefnuy06v345v6vhwpwt05dztztmx4g3y7wp

The Bitcoin in this address comes from James Zhong Case related to the Silk Road. The US government has seized approximately 51,351 BTC from Silk Road hacker James Zhong. Of this amount, 49,825 BTC was transferred to this address. The remaining 1,526 BTC was sent to another Bitcoin address.

The difference between this address and the above two addresses is that it has been transferred out many times since it deposited Bitcoin. The current balance has been cleared.

According to case documents released by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York on March 31, 2023, on March 14, 2023, the U.S. government had sold 9,861 BTC, with net proceeds of approximately $215,522,416. The remaining 41,490 BTC will be liquidated by the US government in four batches this year. The liquidation sale will be held publicly at the U.S. Marshals Service. However, the specific time and amount of liquidation have not been specified yet.

The important information of the address is as follows:

• Balance: 49,825 BTC (Previous) ➡️ 0 BTC (Now)
• Initial Active Time: 2022-03- 26
• In & Out Transactions:

In: 2022-03-26, +49,825 BTC

Out: 2023-03-08, -9,000 BTC; -40,000 BTC

Out: 2023-07-12, -319 BTC; -506 BTC

According to mempool. According to statistics from space, the two Bitcoins transferred out on March 8 were transferred to 3 addresses respectively, of which:

• 9,000 BTC was transferred to one address at a time. This fund was then merged with the 319 BTC transferred out on July 12, and moved several times among internal addresses of the US government.
• 40,000 BTC was divided into 30,175 BTC and 9,825 BTC and transferred to two addresses respectively. 9,825 BTC was transferred to a Coinbase address and was later transferred to a liquidation auction along with 36 BTC (for a total of 9,861 BTC). 30,175 BTC was transferred to another U.S. government address, pending subsequent liquidation.

Some predictions

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Forecast of sale time and amount

According to court documents, the U.S. government has four other sales plans for James Zhong Case’s Bitcoin this year. Judging from the on-chain data, it is now close to mid-September, and the four addresses holding James Zhong Case’s Bitcoins have not yet had any transaction activity. Therefore, we speculate that there are two possible situations:

• If the original sale plan is maintained, the US government will need to complete 4 sales in the remaining 4 months of this year, namely one in September, October, November, and December. , an average of about 10,000 at a time. According to the previous sales time (2023-03-14), these four sales are likely to be scheduled in the middle of each month, that is, September 15th, October 15th, November 15th, and December 15th. day.
• If the US government does not conduct the first round of James Zhong Case Bitcoin sales in September, then for the purpose of stabilizing the market, the US government is likely to postpone the sale plan and completely liquidate the remaining Bitcoins The time has been postponed to next year.

Market Volatility Forecast

On March 8, 2023, the U.S. government made two large Bitcoin transfers, with a total of 49,000 BTC being transferred to new addresses. This includes 9,825 BTC sold to Coinbase. This caused investors to worry about selling pressure on Bitcoin, which saw its price fall by 6% from March 8 to 10 (it began to recover on March 11). At the same time, the entire crypto market has also been volatile, with all major cryptocurrencies experiencing varying degrees of decline. (About 2%-6%)

Therefore, based on the above historical data, we speculate that since the amount of each sale of the remaining parts is not much different from that on March 8, the possible fluctuation in Bitcoin price will be about -2% to -6%.

Prediction of future sales plans

According to the US government’s plan, all remaining Bitcoins in the address of James Zhong Case will be sold this year. The next Bitcoin that may be sold will most likely come from another address related to Silk Road. There are two specific reasons:

• The Bitcoins in this address are also related to the Silk Road case. This case has been going on for nearly 13 years. The circumstances of the case are clear and the main criminal, Ross William Ulbricht, has agreed to hand over all the Bitcoins in this address to the US government for auction.
• The Silk Road Case address is the address with the second largest number of Bitcoins currently held by the U.S. government. After all Bitcoins are liquidated in James Zhong Case, it is undoubtedly the best choice if there is a need for liquidation of large amounts of Bitcoins.

Summary

• There are three US government Bitcoin addresses that traders must pay attention to: bc1qazcm763858nkj2dj986etajv6wquslv8uxwczt, bc1qa5wkgaew2dkv56kfvj49j0av5nml45x9ek9hz6, and bc1qmxjefnu y06v345v6vhwpwt05dztztmx4g3y7wp
• This year we need to focus on the address of James Zhong Case: bc1qmxjefnuy06v345v6vhwpwt05dztztmx4g3y7wp
• This year the US government will liquidate and auction the remaining Bitcoins in the address of James Zhong Case in 4 batches, totaling approximately 41,490.72 BTC
• The estimated sales time of the remaining Bitcoins in the address are Sept.15, Oct.15, Nov.15, and Dec.15, with an average of 10,000/sale
• The possible number of Bitcoins generated by each sale of the remaining The currency price fluctuates around -2% ~ -6%
• The next liquidation address is likely to be Silk Road Case address: bc1qa5wkgaew2dkv56kfvj49j0av5nml45x9ek9hz6