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This week, Felix and Quinn unpack the Fed independence drama following Trump’s visit to Powell, explore the long-term implications of politicizing monetary policy, and preview next week’s pivotal QRA. They discuss how inflation expectations are diverging from commodities, why real yield correlations are breaking down, and how the dollar’s regime may be shifting. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fStI5q6IlPMiU2_swJ_r5sImvbxFSugS/view?usp=sharing
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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:36) Fed Independence
(08:02) Ads (VanEck, Aptos)
(09:22) Fed Independence
(14:25) What’s the Rates Solution?
(23:40) Upcoming QRA
(25:38) Ads (VanEck, Aptos)
(27:03) Upcoming QRA
(32:14) Potential Fed Pivot
(35:49) Dollar Regime Shift
(46:08) Housing Market
(51:04) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
In this episode, Danny Dayan breaks down his framework for analyzing financial conditions and their real-time impact on growth and inflation. He explains why traditional rate transmission mechanisms are breaking down, how immigration and tariffs are distorting the labor market and inflation, and why the Fed may be behind the curve. Danny also lays out his case for a structurally weaker dollar, warns about a “doom loop” dynamic, and shares how he’s positioning his portfolio through it all. Enjoy!
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Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
__
Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
__
This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:08) Macro Overview
(06:18) Digging Into the Data
(11:03) Financial Conditions Framework
(12:11) VanEck Ad
(12:56) Financial Conditions Framework
(28:47) VanEck Ad
(29:26) Right Way to Think About Fed Funds
(38:56) Outlook on the Dollar
(46:40) What Does this Mean for Equities?
(50:44) Inflation & Growth Impulse Scenarios
(54:01) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
