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This week, we discuss the U.S. fiscal pivot, soaring deficits, and what it means for bond markets, Bitcoin, and global capital flows. We also debate whether Japan is the canary in the coal mine for sovereign debt risks, if QE is still politically viable, the housing market crisis, and why Bitcoin and foreign equities may be the only rational long-term trades. Enjoy!
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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zNQbt0lyXLmZQYf-56mneLpPxFNJ5y7h/view?usp=sharing
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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
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Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$200M in aBTC minted.
Check out https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ to learn more!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:46) Big Beautiful Bill
(06:47) There’s One Trade
(09:39) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham)
(11:21) Government Spending Problem
(14:10) US Economic Data
(16:55) Housing Market Crisis
(22:12) Global Collateral & JGBs
(27:21) Food Prices & Labor
(30:46) Ads (Blockdaemon, Aptos, Arkham)
(33:10) Bond Yields & Inflation
(38:32) Liquidity & Collateral Stress
(42:03) US Equities Still Safe?
(50:37) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
In this episode, David Cervantes from Pinebrook Capital breaks down 2025’s shifting macro landscape, covering fiscal stimulus, inflation, Fed policy, and market positioning. He highlights strong US deficits supporting growth, labor market shifts from immigration, and the chances of a June rate cut. He compares US vs. global equities, fixed income challenges, gold’s role, and small caps’ struggles with sector-specific opportunities. Enjoy!
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Follow David: https://x.com/EconstratPB
Follow Pinebrook: https://www.pinebrookcap.com/
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
__
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$200M in aBTC minted.
Check out https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ to learn more!
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:34) YTD Macro Recap
(06:13) The Big Macro Picture
(11:29) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Aptos)
(13:57) Rate Hike Dilemma
(15:57) Tuning Out the Noise
(18:10) Labor Market
(22:59) Fed Policy Reaction
(29:07) Growth Outlook
(31:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Aptos)
(34:30) Structural Bid to Assets
(37:36) US vs ROW
(45:20) Fixed Income Outlook
(47:42) Gold Outlook
(48:39) Small Caps vs Large Caps
(55:12) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
