In this episode, James of Citrini Research returns to unpack his framework for understanding Trump-era macro policy, highlighting why the trade war pause was inevitable, the return of the three-legged stool, and how the "big beautiful bill" could fuel equities. He also outlines why robotics might be the next great secular investment, breaks down China’s robotics lead, and more. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:54) Trump, Tariffs & Macro Overview
(10:48) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Ondo)
(12:54) Taxes, Deregulation & Fiscal
(18:45) Deficit, Defense & DOGE
(22:57) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger, Ondo)
(25:43) AI & Robotics
(35:28) Macro Impact of AI & Robotics
(39:08) Investing in Robotics
(44:52) China vs USA
(48:44) Subsidizing to Build Reliance
(51:53) Citrini's Core Thesis
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
This week, the trio is back! We discuss the Trump-China tariff deal, Tyler’s structural framework driven by political utility markets, the tax bill, and widening fiscal deficits. We also dig into the repatriation of foreign capital, the yield curve's breaking point, and how AI-driven productivity might justify tech valuations. Enjoy!
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yIKpOcGu-wv67vfeKu5I7Lo17hftwgk/view?usp=sharing—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv—
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.comArkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:05) Tyler’s Back!
(03:53) China Deal & Tyler’s Framework
(09:56) Inflation & Labor
(11:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham)
(12:17) US Trade & Debt Reality
(19:58) Generational Repatriation
(22:23) MicroStrategy Monetizing Volatility
(24:02) Inflation & Capital Controls
(27:05) Tax Bill & Deficit Expansion
(28:56) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham)
(30:27) Dollar & Bond Market Breaking
(35:32) Stock Flows, Volatility & Sentiment
(38:08) US Equities & AI
(43:14) Asian Currencies
(45:21) New System in Motion
(47:07) Short Bond Trade
(49:34) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.