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This week, we discuss our FOMC takeaways, Bessent making progress on a China trade deal, and how we’re thinking about the yield curve. We also delve into Fed QE misinformation, the bullish vs bearish risk-to-reward right now, the Taiwan dollar and Mag7 exodus, Bitcoin repeating last summer, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V9LpLt45QpaeAz-YgFcQZLlwwxTmqZaZ/view?usp=sharing
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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
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Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:29) FOMC Takeaways
(09:03) Strong Economic Data & Tariffs Sidelining Fed
(12:59) Unemployment & Immigration
(15:11) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ledger, Arkham, Ondo)
(17:17) Inflation & Fed Reaction
(22:28) Trading Cuts & the Curve
(25:49) Fed QE Misinformation
(29:42) Bessent & China Trade Deal
(35:11) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ledger, Arkham, Ondo)
(38:00) Bullish vs Bearish Catalysts
(44:34) Bitcoin & Global Liquidity
(46:51) Taiwan Dollar, Klauss & Mag7 Exodus
(55:21) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In this episode, Luke Gromen joins the show to discuss the trade agreement with China, why the U.S. can’t afford real interest rates, and how the bond market—not policymakers—is now setting the rules. We also explore the hidden costs of decoupling from China, the inevitability of dollar devaluation, why any attempt at fiscal austerity is doomed, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Luke:
https://x.com/LukeGromen
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
__
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:38) China Trade Deal
(08:09) Balance of Trade IS Currencies
(10:45) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo)
(12:08) Gold, Yuan & USD
(15:36) China Market & Competitive Edge
(20:06) Global Bifurcation
(24:51) Southeast Asia & Industrial Policy
(29:23) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ondo)
(31:23) US Fiscal Endgame
(35:56) Treasury Tools
(41:06) Why Issue Any Long Duration?
(43:40) The Fed’s Next Move
(45:38) Austerity Risk
(51:06) The Trend Hasn’t Changed
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
