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In this episode, Michael Howell joins the show to discuss the Fed & Treasury’s hidden stimulus tapering off, why we need more liquidity in the financial system to refinance debts, and why the Fed’s QE & duration goals are unrealistic. We also delve into the dislocation between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates, what China needs to do to escape its debt deflation, global liquidity’s correlation to Bitcoin’s price, and more. Enjoy!
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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:06) Deep Dive into Bank Reserves
(03:53) Fed/Treasury Pump and Dump
(09:51) Global Liquidity and Debt Refinancing
(16:05) Ledger Ad
(16:49) Bank Reserves & Liquidity-to-Debt Ratio
(20:19) Post-GFC Financial System
(23:46) Repo Market Tensions
(35:01) Ledger Ad
(35:46) The Fed's Duration Dump and Debt Refinancing
(39:25) Yield Curve Suppression and Inflation Rates
(44:11) Credit Markets and Risk Appetite
(50:47) China's Economic Policy and Gold Strategy
(01:00:52) Bitcoin & Global Liquidity
(01:07:59) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
This week, Tony Greer and Jared Dillian from Macro Dirt join the roundup to discuss the fallout of Trump’s tariffs, what markets we’re eyeing during this meltdown, and how to manage risk as a trader. We also delve into commodities, tax cuts, Bitcoin’s resilience, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro
Follow Jared: https://x.com/dailydirtnap
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:08) Forward Guidance x Macro Dirt
(01:32) Unpacking Trump’s Tariffs & Market Reaction
(09:56) Commodity Markets
(15:04) Federal Reserve and Economic Data
(24:27) Market Volatility and Bear Market Rallies
(25:57) Risk Management Strategies for Traders
(30:00) Gold Miners and Commodity Markets
(33:25) Tax Cuts and Tariff Implications
(37:43) Bitcoin's Resilience
(42:53) Bond Price Action
(44:53) Weekend Plans
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
