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Powell Bids Farewell, Five Financial Reports Submitted: Market's Busiest Week Arrives

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If this week's earnings report shows that AI capital expenditure returns fall short of expectations, the contraction of risk appetite will spread from the tech sector to the crypto market.

Original Title: "Super Central Bank Week Clashes with Super Earnings Week, BTC Awaits Judgment Near $80,000"

This week, the global financial markets entered a rare high-density event window. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada will sequentially announce interest rate decisions between April 28 and May 2, with the market generally expecting all five major central banks to hold steady.

At the same time, five of the Tech Big Seven (Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple) will intensively disclose first-quarter earnings reports, with a combined market cap approaching $16 trillion, accounting for about 44% of the S&P 500's total market cap.

On April 27, the market had already entered a wait-and-see mode. The S&P 500 inched up 0.12% to close at 6173.91 points, hitting a new closing high; the Nasdaq rose 0.20%, setting a new high for two consecutive days; the Dow fell slightly by 0.13%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped by 1.01%, ending an 18-day record streak. Nvidia rose 4% to a historic high, while storage stocks Micron soared over 8% and Western Digital rose 5.6%, with AMD falling nearly 4%.

Bitcoin surged above $79,000 intraday, hitting a nearly three-month high, then quickly retreated to around $76,500, with an intraday volatility of nearly 4%.

Powell's Final Interest Rate Meeting

On April 30, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, with the market pricing in a probability of over 99% for rates to remain unchanged. The focus of this meeting, apart from the interest rate itself, is likely to be Powell's potentially last FOMC meeting as Federal Reserve Chair, as his term ends on May 15.

On April 24, the U.S. Department of Justice announced the termination of the criminal investigation into Powell. Previously, Senator Tillis, citing the ongoing investigation, substantially blocked the Senate confirmation vote on Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair.

According to NBC News, Tillis withdrew the objection after receiving direct assurance from the Department of Justice that the "investigation has been fully terminated." The Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote on Warsh's nomination on April 29, coinciding with Powell's press conference.

According to FXStreet analysis, in his final press conference, Powell is more likely to emphasize that policy should be data-driven and defend central bank independence rather than give a clear rate cut signal. The market currently loosely prices in one to two rate cuts in the second half of 2026, but once Warsh formally takes office, policy expectations may undergo a recalibration.

The remaining four major central banks are also expected to keep rates unchanged:

· Bank of Canada: On April 29, maintained at 2.25%, all 41 economists surveyed by Reuters expected no change

· European Central Bank: On April 30, according to ING analysis, it is expected to keep the current interest rates, but the possibility of a summer rate hike is being discussed if oil prices remain high

· Bank of Japan: On May 1, maintained at 0.75%, the market expects the next rate hike to be delayed until October

· Bank of England: On April 30, expected to maintain at 3.75%

NVIDIA Hits New High Amid $645 Billion AI Capital Expenditure Clearing Moment

Prior to this week's earnings report, the barometer of the AI narrative, NVIDIA, has already made its mark. On Monday, NVIDIA rose 4% to hit a historic high, with a market cap exceeding $5.2 trillion, becoming the first chip company to break this threshold. NVIDIA's Q1 revenue was $44.1 billion, a 69% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of $18.775 billion.

Data center revenue was $39.1 billion, accounting for 89% of total revenue, serving as the core driver. CEO Jensen Huang believes that by 2027, global computing demand will surpass the $1 trillion mark, and the cost and efficiency of generating Tokens will directly determine the revenue and survival of technology companies.

After-market on Wednesday, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta will all release their first-quarter earnings reports on the same day, followed by Apple on Thursday. According to the Wall Street consensus expectations compiled by Zacks Investment Research, the combined Q1 profit of the seven tech giants is expected to increase by 20.3% year-on-year, with a revenue growth of 22%.

Meanwhile, based on recent research reports from JPMorgan Chase and industry forecasts, the capital expenditure of the top four American cloud giants—Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—in the field of AI is rapidly expanding, with a projected total capital expenditure of around $645 billion in 2026, a 56% year-on-year surge.

The core question that the market is focusing on is whether such a massive capital expenditure is generating measurable returns. Senior strategist Louis Navellier stated that the outlook of the seven giants and their capital expenditure plans will be key to sustaining market momentum.

Bloomberg Macro Strategist Kristine Aquino warned that the substantial AI investment by tech giants may not have yielded tangible returns yet, making this key variable in this year's stock market rally "appear quite fragile."

The Long vs. Short Game Before Bitcoin's $80,000 Milestone

BTC retraced from a high of $79,000 to $76,500 on April 28, experiencing a 3.04% intraday drop, in line with the overall risk-off sentiment.

From on-chain data, BTC is currently at a critical technical level. A Glassnode report indicates the short-term holder cost basis is $80,100, representing the average cost of all buyers in the past 155 days. If BTC rises to this level, over 54% of recent buyers would be back in profit.

The $78,000 to $80,100 range poses a significant short-term resistance, while $70,000 is gradually shaping up as a midterm support as the market absorbs the selling pressure above.

In late April, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw cumulative inflows of over $2 billion within 8 trading days. BlackRock's IBIT continued to lead, with monthly inflows reaching $2.14 billion, ranking in the top 1% of all U.S. ETFs. Morgan Stanley's MSBT, launched on April 8, recorded $71 million in inflows in its first full trading week.

Reported by CoinDesk, this round of ETF inflows is approximately 9 times the newly mined supply during the same period, as institutional demand systematically absorbs the new supply. Binance's BTC reserves have simultaneously dropped to a 7-year low, while whale accumulation has hit a 13-year high.

This week, there are two main macro transmission pathways for the crypto market: the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and the historical data showing that BTC has dropped after 7 out of 8 FOMC meetings in 2025, creating a steady "buy the rumor, sell the fact" pattern.

According to CoinGecko's statistics, even in a rate-cutting cycle, priced-in expectations often trigger profit-taking after the decision is announced. Following the January 2026 interest rate meeting where rates were held steady, BTC tumbled from $90,400 to $83,383 within 48 hours, marking a 7.3% drop.

Of more significance is the expected policy shift after Powell, with JPMorgan's Chief Economist Michael Feroli predicting that a Warsh appointment would drive a rate cut. The rationale is that AI-driven productivity gains are creating a disinflationary backdrop, opening room for accommodative policies. If the rate cut materializes in the second half of the year, improved liquidity conditions will be a midterm positive for the crypto market.

On the tech earnings front, the rolling correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 rose to 0.52 in 2025, up from 0.23 in 2024, briefly hitting 0.75 in early 2026.

According to Benzinga analysis, the Big Seven in Tech, software stocks, and BTC have formed a "single trade," amplifying gains in the 2024-2025 rally and facing pressure synchronously in the recent pullback.

If this week's earnings reports show that AI capital expenditure returns fall short of expectations, the contraction in risk appetite will transition from tech stocks to the crypto market; conversely, strong performance could potentially propel BTC above the key $80,000 level, opening up upside potential.