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Negotiations Break Down Again, Oil Price Surge Triggers Early Pricing, Weekend On-Chain Futures Market Watch

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The market pricing reflects the "increased likelihood of negotiation" rather than the "imminent agreement."

After the market closed last weekend, the market was filled with expectations of a deadlock. Iran rejected the second round of talks, and oil prices gapped up while the S&P index fell below the previous low.

As we entered the middle of this week, Pakistan's mediation efforts began to show progress. On Friday night, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi led a delegation to Islamabad; the White House subsequently announced that envoys Viktorov and Kushner would travel to Pakistan before Saturday to advance the second round of negotiations. As a result, after-hours on the 24th, oil prices once again plunged by over 3%, bringing back the narrative of "the worst is over".

However, this optimism did not last for more than 36 hours.

At 22:34 on Saturday, a Pakistani news source revealed to Al-Arabiya: "Although the Iranian Foreign Minister planned to return to Islamabad on Sunday, 'Iran has not made any concessions, and their position remains the same as before the Islamabad negotiations began'." CBS quickly followed up with a report that Araghchi had left Pakistan. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei simultaneously confirmed on Twitter: "There is no planned meeting between Iran and the United States."

At 23:41, Trump personally halted Viktorov and Kushner's trip to Pakistan.

At 23:52, Trump explained his decision to Fox News: "I just told my people, they were getting ready to go, and I said, 'No, you're not flying 18 hours for this. We hold all the cards. They can call us anytime they want to negotiate'."

Traders quickly reacted on TradeXYZ, with a sharp 2% increase in oil futures contracts and a 0.55% drop in S&P futures contracts.

And that's not all. Trump later revealed in a follow-up interview with reporters: "Interestingly, I just canceled the trip, less than 10 minutes later, we received a new document, much better than the previous one." He added that Iran "has given a lot, but it's not enough."

From 23:26 to 23:27 on Sunday, the Iranian state media Fars News Agency issued two successive breaking news posts - Iran has submitted written information to the U.S. through Pakistan, covering the nuclear issue and the Strait of Hormuz, and emphasizing that "this is Iran's initiative to communicate".

This is the first time since the start of the conflict that Iran has publicly acknowledged being the initiating party for written communication.

The oil price quickly retraced from a previous gain of +1.3%, marking the first "optimistic repricing" of the weekend markets.

Early Monday morning, Axios reported that Iran had presented the US with a "phase-in plan": first, resolving the Strait of Hormuz blockade and extending the ceasefire until the war is completely over; then, postponing nuclear negotiations until the strait reopens and the blockade is lifted. This proposal was delivered to the White House through Pakistan, but it is unclear whether the US is willing to proceed based on this plan.

It is noteworthy that this plan bypasses the current thorniest issue of the nuclear talks, which is also one of the two core goals of the Trump administration since the beginning of the conflict (suspending enrichment activities and removing stockpiles of highly enriched uranium). According to Axios, citing sources, there is "no internal consensus" among senior Iranian officials on what concessions to make on the nuclear issue, hence they chose to first exchange "lifting the strait blockade" for "US flexibility on frozen assets."

The Trump administration has not publicly responded to the details of this plan yet. However, according to three US officials, he is scheduled to convene the national security and diplomatic team in the White House Situation Room on Monday to discuss the Iran situation, including the negotiation deadlock and the next steps.

It can be said that Trump's tough stance indeed led to a more significant concession proposal over the weekend, but he still publicly commented that it was "not enough." In other words, the current market pricing reflects the "possibility of negotiations resuming" rather than "an imminent agreement."