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From Coinbase to OpenAI: When Lobbying Experts Begin to Flee Crypto

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To determine whether an industry is at its peak or at its nadir, one thing is enough to look at: the presence of the smartest lobbyists, whether they are entering or exiting.

Original Title: "From Coinbase to OpenAI: When Lobbying Experts Start to Exit Crypto"
Original Author: Ada, Deep Tide TechFlow

To determine whether an industry is at its peak or at its nadir, one thing is enough to observe: Are the smartest lobbying experts entering or exiting?

In the early hours of April 14, CoinDesk posted a mundane piece of personnel news.

Coinbase's Vice President of International Policy, Tom Duff Gordon, resigned and joined OpenAI as the EMEA Policy Director.

Within the trending topics of Crypto Twitter, this news lingered for less than half a day. Compared to the news of a large XRP holder dumping over a hundred million dollars on Coinbase the same day, it seemed too quiet.

But quiet news is sometimes the most worthy of attention.

Because it signals the beginning of a migration for a certain group of people.

Why the Departure?

When you unfold Gordon's resume, it reveals much more than the CoinDesk article's mere hundreds of words.

He spent eight and a half years at Credit Suisse. Then he spent four years at Coinbase before recently switching to OpenAI. From traditional finance to crypto, and then to AI. Each job change occurred precisely at a new inflection point in the industry curve.

Gordon joined Coinbase around 2021, when MiCA was just beginning to take shape in Brussels, the UK FCA's crypto asset registration regime was newly launched, and the entire Europe was still a blank canvas on how to regulate "digital assets." Coinbase needed someone who understood investment banking compliance and could enjoy afternoon tea in the City of London to meticulously fill in this blank canvas.

Gordon was the right choice. He was used to dealing with regulators at Credit Suisse, and his client habits, tone, and rhythm were all consistent.

And the decision to leave Coinbase and join OpenAI in April 2026 was not arbitrary.

Right when the EU AI Act was just enacted, the first batch of enforcement cases had not yet emerged, and each country's local enforcement guidelines were still in flux. Although former UK Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and former Chancellor George Osborne were no longer political figures, their contact lists were still useful, and those who utilize these contact lists are now shifting lanes.

Why Did Gordon Leave Now? Because Coinbase's Policy War Is Over.

In 2023, the SEC sued Coinbase for operating an unregistered security exchange. The case was heard at the U.S. Third Circuit Court of Appeals in 2024. On January 21, 2025, the new SEC administration established a crypto working group, and on February 27, 2025, the SEC withdrew its lawsuit.

From the toughest regulatory opponent to a handshake peace, it took two years.

In his January 2026 corporate blog post, Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal wrote that 2025 was a "milestone year" for Coinbase's market operations. This means that the main battlefield of the policy war is no longer in the United States.

Gordon's responsibility in Europe is also concluding. MiCA was phased in by the end of 2024, and throughout 2025, major exchanges obtained licenses and conducted localized registrations. This work is for compliance lawyers and localization teams, not for vice president-level policy lobbying experts.

The value of a policy lobbyist is highest during a regulatory vacuum but plummets during regulatory implementation.

Gordon is not alone. Over the past two years, there have been successive departures from Coinbase's policy and legal departments.

As early as the 2023 round of 20% layoffs, the legal and compliance department saw at least twenty layoffs. Those who left in these two years were at higher levels, and most were not laid off but left voluntarily.

The reason for these voluntary departures is not a secret in the industry: alpha returns have vanished.

During the regulatory vacuum period from 2021 to 2024, a policy expert knowledgeable about crypto was equivalent to someone who could simultaneously write memos for exchanges, VCs, issuers, and projects. A casual mention in an email saying, "I discussed this with the FCA yesterday," could secure another round of funding or a partnership.

But today, that statement holds no value. The FCA's stance is public, and EU regulatory agencies hold weekly press conferences, leveling the playing field for crypto compliance information.

On the other hand, in the field of AI, information asymmetry is currently at its peak.

Replicating Coinbase

In October 2024, OpenAI tweeted about opening new offices in New York, Seattle, Paris, Brussels, and Singapore. On April 13, 2026, the day before the news of Gordon's departure, OpenAI announced further expansion of its London branch, positioning London as one of the most important hubs outside the United States.

Reading these two pieces of news together, the plot becomes clear.

On OpenAI's current job page, the position of EMEA Global Affairs Director has been open for over half a year, requiring "15 or more years of experience in government, international affairs, and tech policy," and specifically emphasizing the need to "build trust and a relationship network with EU institutions, regulatory bodies, and governments."

Gordon's resume is a perfect match for this JD.

According to a previous report by the Financial Times, OpenAI plans to increase its staff from 4,500 to 8,000 by the end of 2026, hiring an average of 12 people per day. Policy and government affairs are one of the key focus areas. In January of this year, OpenAI officially announced the "OpenAI for Europe" initiative, aiming to include education, healthcare, cybersecurity, and disaster response in its lobbying scope.

The implication of this statement is: OpenAI's ambition in Europe is not just to sell the enterprise version of ChatGPT but to delve into every area that could be affected by legislation, setting the stage in advance.

In 2021, Coinbase did the same thing in Europe.

The only difference is that back then, it was about crypto regulations, and now it's about general artificial intelligence.

Gordon's Value

There's a saying in the crypto community called "regulatory arbitrage." It means exploiting regulatory differences between regions, industries, and time periods to find gaps in the rules and turn arbitrage opportunities into business.

Binance was initially registered in Malta, FTX chose the Bahamas, Tether ended up in the British Virgin Islands, all textbook examples of regulatory arbitrage.

Behind this business of regulatory arbitrage lies a hidden profession: the lobbyist behind the arbitrageur.

They don't directly engage in arbitrage; instead, they translate the "gap" into a "compliance narrative." They translate the actual operations of a trading platform into language acceptable to regulators; they translate a regulator's concerns into business-friendly compromises for the company.

This work requires three things: a muscle memory of internal regulatory decision-making processes, a technical understanding of the industry, and a network of contacts.

People like Gordon sell these three things.

The technical understanding is actually the least valuable. There is no intersection between crypto and AI at the fundamental technological level, but this is not important. They don't need to understand the technology; they need to know which official is sensitive to which issues, which legislator is up for reelection this year, and what statements the chairman of a certain industry association will make at a summit next month.

This knowledge is highly transferable between the two fields of crypto and AI. The group in charge of drafting MiCA in the EU is now drafting the local implementation details of the AI Act.

In other words, Gordon left Coinbase to join OpenAI, having much less to relearn than the average person imagines.

And the real value is in the hundreds of contacts in his phone address book that won't show up on LinkedIn.

Today, Coinbase still needs policy talent. But what it needs are local compliance managers, execution-oriented roles that can implement each provision of MiCA, and litigation lawyers who can handle the aftermath of a second SEC investigation.

It no longer needs a vice president-level public affairs lobbying expert who drinks with the top political figures in Brussels, London, and Paris.

This situation is not unique to Coinbase.

Look at the current situation in the crypto industry: Circle has dropped from its post-IPO high of $298 to $98, Bullish from $118 to $38, and although Kraken has confidentially submitted its filing, the IPO plans are currently on hold; based on trading on the private secondary market, the market's valuation expectations have fallen below the $20 billion valuation from the previous $20 billion financing round.

On the 3rd day of trading after BitGo's IPO, the stock price has already given back all the gains from the first day and fallen below the IPO price.

When an industry's valuation logic shifts from a "narrative premium" to a "cash flow discount," its talent needs will also shift accordingly.

The narrative premium period of the crypto industry lasted from around 2020 to 2025. During these five years, a vice president who understands regulations could simultaneously be a business asset, a PR asset, and a fundraising asset.

But now, in the cash flow discount period, these positions have been replaced by CFOs, COOs, and Chief Compliance Officers.

The kind of activity where you "go to Brussels to get a blank piece of paper and color it in" is no longer needed in crypto.

The Tide's Direction

Gordon jumped to OpenAI, jumping into a larger, messier, higher-budget battlefield where the red lines are less clear.

The EU AI Act has entered the enforcement phase this year, but countries are still grappling with the specific interpretations of the provisions on General Purpose Artificial Intelligence (GPAI). The UK still lacks dedicated AI legislation, and it's unknown if the FCA's "principle-based regulation" will be reused in the AI field.

Several sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East are investing in data centers while considering AI industry policies. The issue of data sovereignty in Africa is becoming the next trade negotiation topic.

This chaos poses a risk to regulatory agencies but an opportunity for policy lobbyists.

OpenAI's offer to individuals like Gordon is roughly 1.5 to 2 times that of a similar position at Coinbase, including early equity.

And that's not even the most valuable part. The most valuable part is that by entering now, if OpenAI goes public or maintains its private valuation expansion, the RSUs in your hand are essentially a winning lottery ticket based on the current valuation.

This kind of lottery was seen in Coinbase in 2021, in Google in 2013, and in Yahoo in 1999.

At the peak of each technological narrative, there will be a group of individuals who understand the rules the best and are the best storytellers getting on board first. By the time the ride reaches its destination, they have already disembarked and are chasing the next one.

In a sense, determining whether an industry is at its peak or at the foot of the mountain doesn't require looking at the coin price, TVL, or funding amount.

One thing is enough to observe: The smartest lobbyists, are they entering or exiting?

The year Gordon joined Coinbase was 2021.

The year Gordon left Coinbase will be 2026.

These five years in between represent the lifespan of this crypto cycle.