On March 21, prominent American media personality Tucker Carlson released his latest interview program.

The guest was not a former senator or retired general, nor a distinguished scholar from a Washington think tank, but a Chinese man named Jiang Xueqin. His daily role is teaching history and philosophy at a private high school called the "Moon Exploration School" in Beijing's Chaoyang District.

The program lasted over an hour, with topics ranging from the trajectory of the Iran War to the possibility of Japan's nuclearization, Israel's strategic calculations, the actual combat capabilities of the U.S. ground forces, and the role played by Trump in all of this.

To truly understand this episode, we must start with Tucker Carlson.

The Lost Tucker Carlson

If someone were to ask who is the political journalist most representative of the core soul of America in this era, Tucker Carlson is an unavoidable name.

Tucker Carlson

He is a top American political commentator, and his show, Tucker Carlson Tonight, has long held the top spot in the ratings for American political programs, making it the most important platform for conservative discourse.

More importantly, he is also one of the most important media allies of the MAGA movement. Trump sees him as "one of his own," and during the 2024 election, the two appeared on stage together multiple times. Carlson is almost the loudest trumpet for the MAGA movement in the media arena.

But everything changed after the U.S.-Israel joint military strike on Iran in February.

Carlson publicly denounced the war, calling the joint strike "disgusting and extremely evil," and explicitly stated, "This is Israel's war, not America's war." Trump then kicked him out of MAGA, saying, "Tucker has lost his way; he is not MAGA. MAGA is about making America great again, putting America first, and Tucker is none of these."

Carlson later publicly claimed that the CIA is preparing to sue him for being an "unregistered foreign agent" solely because he had exchanged text messages with the Iranian side before the war broke out.

This war has thus evolved into a split between the MAGA camp and the establishment: The establishment is trying to reverse the decline through war, while some, represented by Carlson, see this as digging their own grave. Trump kicked Carlson out of MAGA, a microcosm of this internal rupture.

Carlson now faces an ironic situation: he has repeatedly predicted on his show that the "deep state" would use legal means to target dissenters. But now he has become a dissenter himself.

At this critical juncture, he invited Jiang Xueqin — a Beijing high school teacher who predicted two years ago that America would lose this war — to sit in front of his camera.

Three Predictions That Made Him Famous

In May 2024, with Biden still in the White House and Trump yet to survive two summer assassination attempts that year, the election outcome was far from certain. In what seemed like an ordinary class, Jiang Xueqin made three predictions to his students:

1. Trump will win the election in November.

2. The U.S. will be involved in a war with Iran.

3. The U.S. will lose this war and thus permanently alter the global order.

Looking back now, the first two predictions have both come true:

On November 5, 2024, Trump emerged victorious in the U.S. election, defeating his opponent, Harris.

On February 28, 2026, the U.S. jointly launched a military strike against Iran.

Predictive History Video Screenshot

As for the third prediction, it is still unfolding.

He posted these classroom contents on his YouTube channel, "Predictive History." No subtitles, no editing, just the well-dressed Mr. Jiang and a chalkboard. According to his account, the channel was inspired by the concept of "psychohistory" in the works of science fiction writer Isaac Asimov: believing that history has structural laws, one can deduce the future direction through mathematical models and group psychology analysis.

After the U.S.-Iran war broke out, this old 2024 video went viral across the web, with American viewers flooding the comments section in amazement. This also brought Jiang Xueqin to fame, with the video surpassing 4 million views in a single day, and the channel gaining over 2 million subscribers.

Will the US Lose This Middle East War?

In 415 B.C., Athens, immersed in the illusion of empire at its peak, recklessly treated Sicily as a low-hanging fruit. They sent out the most luxurious expeditionary fleet in history but, due to a broken supply line and crumbling home support, ended up burying an entire generation of elite youth and almost all of their savings in that distant land.

This is Jiang Xueqin's historical analogy to the potential fate of the US after getting involved in Iran.

His core argument is that the US military is essentially a Cold War-era "muscle-flexing" system, costly, focused on technological awe, rather than the resilience of enduring attrition warfare. This misalignment manifests in reality as a ludicrous asymmetry, such as using a missile worth millions of dollars to counter a $50,000 drone.

Even after the war begins, Jiang Xueqin still believes Iran has the upper hand over the US. He pointed out on March 3 in an interview with the US independent news commentary show Breaking Points that Iran holds a sinister trump card: by targeting desalination facilities in the Gulf region, they could paralyze the entire petrodollar system within weeks.

90% of Kuwait's drinking water comes from desalination, and Saudi Arabia relies on it for 70%. Once these facilities suffer systemic damage, it will deepen regional instability, further exacerbate humanitarian disasters, and trigger a migration crisis in the Gulf region.

Jiang Xueqin on Breaking Points

And just five days after the show aired, on March 8, Iran attacked a desalination plant in Bahrain.

Desalination Plants in the Middle East

On Tucker Carlson's show, Jiang Xueqin's predictions look further and more unsettling:

The modern global economy is built on one premise: energy is cheap and readily available. And now, that premise is crumbling.

Tucker Carlson and Jiang Xueqin in Conversation

Jiang Xueqin believes that the Iran War will be highly similar to the Ukraine War: dragging on and turning into a war of attrition. The United States cannot withdraw because once they do, the only regional power that can fill the security void is Iran. And about one-fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz every day. If Gulf countries lean towards Iran, the Petrodollar system will collapse.

His statement is very straightforward: "The current U.S. economy is essentially a Ponzi scheme, relying on foreign countries constantly buying dollars to keep it running." The U.S. currently carries nearly $39 trillion in debt and has relied for decades on oil-producing countries settling oil in dollars and then recycling the money back into the U.S. economy. Once this cycle is interrupted, the consequences will be devastating.

Based on this assessment, he outlined three major trends that he believes will come regardless of the outcome: deindustrialization due to expensive energy, countries being forced to rearm, and the return of neo-mercantilism after the collapse of the global supply chain.

He also predicted that, in order to maintain the front line, Trump is highly likely to order a national draft, leading to street riots, followed by the deployment of the National Guard. "So, unfortunately, the United States is very likely to experience years of factional violence," he said on the show.

In this logic, this year's Oscar-winning film "War Again" may no longer be a hypothetical scenario on the screen but the final prelude to systemic collapse.

Foundation of His Predictions

Jiang Xueqin's trajectory of growth is itself a history of boundary-crossing practices. At the age of 6, he immigrated to Canada with his family and then grew up in Toronto. With a scholarship, he entered Yale to major in English literature. After graduation, he returned to China. For nearly twenty years, he has worked as a journalist, documentary director, UN project officer, and deeply immersed in China's educational reform practices.

In 2022, he returned to Beijing and joined Moonshot Academy. Its founder, born in the 1990s, Wang Xiqiao, is also an active education innovator.

The educational logic of Moonshot is inherently consistent with the direction Jiang Xueqin has been deeply cultivating for twenty years: abandoning the assessment of students based on subject scores and emphasizing problem-solving in the real world.

Jiang Xueqin on the Moonshot Academy website

At Moonshot, Jiang Xueqin teaches a year-long Western philosophy course, guiding students to read "The Epic of Gilgamesh," Plato's "Republic," and Descartes' "Meditations." But what he truly wants to teach students is to critically and objectively examine themselves and the world from a higher perspective.

This was exactly the underlying ability upon which his three predictions relied. It was not a matter of knowledge accumulation in a specific field, but a mindset that penetrates the surface, identifies structural patterns, and predicts based on them.

Those Who Master Patterns Are Rare in Any Era

In a classroom lecture, Jiang Xueqin once said that a correct historical framework should achieve three things simultaneously: connect the past, explain the present, and predict the future. Only by accomplishing these three points can one possibly get close to the truth.

The glow of the desalination plant, the crack in the petrodollar—these are all inevitable manifestations when structural forces reach a certain point. Asimov's "psychohistory" is fascinating precisely because it believes that beneath the chaotic surface, history has its own syntax. His three predictions were a real-world validation of this framework.

However, the framework itself does not provide answers. Perhaps this is also why Jiang Xueqin chose to stay in the classroom—not because the classroom was safe enough, but because there were still people there willing to ask serious questions.

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