As international tensions have escalated in recent years, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Gaza conflict, Iran-related geopolitical risks, etc., people have realized that geopolitical information has an increasingly significant impact on the global capital markets. A war happening thousands of miles away could potentially trigger a global stock market "flash crash." Intelligence information is no longer just about national defense, and the general public's demand for situational analysis and forward-looking intelligence has significantly risen. The concept of "Open Source Intelligence" (OSINT) has also emerged: leveraging publicly available information on the internet such as social media, satellite imagery, flight paths, and other public sources to cross-validate and piece together valuable clues. Examples like footage posted on TikTok by a frontline soldier in a certain war, along with associated account login details, and the "Pentagon Pizza Index" that infers military movements based on changes in U.S. Department of Defense food delivery orders, are typical open-source intelligence scenarios.

The open-source intelligence scenario we focus on is market prediction: it allows participants to bet on whether a certain event will occur, covering events across various domains such as technology, entertainment, culture, and geopolitics.

Polymarket was founded in 2020, initially serving a blockchain-native user base. Its real entry into the public eye came during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle: a week before the election results were officially announced, when mainstream media and traditional polling institutions were still struggling to provide a clear conclusion, Polymarket had already placed the probability of Trump's election at 65%. By around 10 p.m. on the election night, Trump's election probability had risen to 90%, while many mainstream media outlets were still reporting the latest vote counts, with the final results only being announced in the early hours of the next day.

The total transaction volume for bets on this presidential election was $3.686 billion, and the top two most profitable accounts made a profit of $38.62 million by betting on Trump's election. To this day, they still hold the top two positions on the platform's all-time profit leaderboard. It was this election that fundamentally changed the public's perception of Polymarket and the entire prediction market: it was no longer simply seen as a "blockchain casino" or speculative game but widely recognized as a more accurate and responsive data reference platform than traditional polls. Subsequently, many mainstream media outlets began actively collaborating with prediction markets, systematically introducing prediction market probability data into news reports as a supplementary market consensus perspective.

For a long time, many people have understood prediction markets as a "betting game on outcomes." However, in our view, the real value has never been in the betting behavior itself but in the information advantage behind the bet. Industry secrets and critical intelligence on key conflicts, previously shrouded in secrecy due to protocols, have become bargaining chips in the financial markets with the support of prediction markets. The probability fluctuations of prediction market events caused by insider bets are themselves an undeniable signal of reality.

In other words, if we can systematically identify these accounts, it is possible to obtain forward-looking clues different from any traditional intelligence channel and even know the results in advance when events occur. Whether it's the ending of a TV series that has already been filmed, a pre-determined award selection, or a regulatory outcome that has been decided... as long as someone is informed and the platform allows betting, secrets are difficult to fully conceal. This has completely rewritten the traditionally static flow of information to:

Event Occurs → Insider Bets → Spread of Insider Betting Action → Public Awareness of Event Unfolding

In a mild scenario, this means that the outcome of a TV series, award winners, or business decisions will be known to the market in advance; while in an extreme scenario, it can even touch upon war and geopolitical conflicts: people can gain military intelligence-level information by betting through frontline soldiers, directly influencing the course of the war. When the outcome is already known to a few, and the market allows betting around the outcome, the price itself may become an irresistible reality signal.

In this context, the role of the propagator becomes particularly important. Based on this assessment, as the largest Chinese-language media outlet in the blockchain industry, Odaily BlockBeats formally established a prediction market research team in November 2025 to conduct long-term, structured on-chain research on prediction markets. Leveraging Polymarket and the transparency and traceability of the blockchain itself, we attempt to identify accounts that bet highly consistently in the prediction market and exhibit abnormally stable long-term performance through systematic transaction profile analysis.

In this article, we have selected one of the most representative research samples: the "Russia-capture" series prediction market event. In this report, we will systematically present our research methodology, key findings, and the practical value of this approach in reality. Through the analytical methods mentioned in this report, we aim to distill transaction profiles that closely match those of insiders and predict the development trend of subsequent events by interpreting their trading behavior.

1. Executive Summary

This report aims to identify potential anomalous trading behavior in the Polymarket prediction market platform regarding geopolitical events related to the "Russia-Ukraine War" through systematic on-chain and transaction data analysis, and evaluate whether it exhibits characteristics that suggest access to undisclosed or insider information, thereby drawing conclusions on whether the prediction market can provide early access to real news facts.

Methodologically, the report constructs and applies two complementary filtering models: one is the Behavior Concentration Model, which characterizes whether an account is highly focused on a specific geopolitical event from a transactional structure perspective; the other is the Capital Concentration Model, which identifies accounts with strong subjective beliefs or abnormal financial performance based on fund allocation, win rate, and profit/loss results.

Based on the analysis of 79 "Russia-capture" events, 23,316 unique accounts, and over 3.09 million transaction records, the report successfully screened multiple suspicious accounts that significantly deviate from typical retail trader characteristics in terms of transaction concentration, fund allocation, and profit performance. These accounts generally exhibit: high activity frequency focused on Russia-Ukraine-related events, heavy betting on related events, and consistently stable or significantly positive returns.

The comprehensive analysis indicates that on-chain activity data can effectively characterize traders' interest structure and risk preferences, providing strong data support for identifying potential insider trading or information advantage behavior.

II. Research Background and Objectives

Compared to highly macroscopic and ambiguously defined issues such as "when will the war end" or "will there be a nuclear conflict," the "Russia-Ukraine Occupation Event" on Polymarket has extremely high research value. The questioning style of such events is usually very specific, for example:

"By October 31st, will Russia control Polokrovsk?"

This is a factual judgment about a specific geographical location and a specific time point, with no room for interpretation. The replicability of such events also makes them the best war intelligence bounty platform for insiders such as soldiers and intelligence personnel.

Polymarket first launched relevant Russia-Ukraine occupation events in May 2024. As of February 10, 2026, the platform has released a total of 79 related events, each event usually containing one or more time window markets, with a total trading volume of approximately $47.87 million.

For this reason, we conducted a systematic on-chain replay of all 23,316 unique on-chain addresses that had engaged in trading activities during the Russia-Ukraine occupation events, along with over 3.09 million historical transaction records, attempting to separate truly explanatory signals from seemingly noisy trading behaviors.

2.1 Insider Account Profile

Although the anonymity of the blockchain prevents us from fully tracing account ownership, its transparent transaction history allows us to mine insider trading data on a massive scale and build trading profiles. The analysis approach in this article uses a funnel-like filtering process to gradually narrow down a large number of accounts to a group that is "most worthy of manual review": first look at behavior → then look at funds → then look at outcomes → manual review. Here, we introduce two types of profiles:

2.1.1 Profile One: Behavior Focus — "I only participate in events where I know the outcome"

Those who truly have frontline information concentrate their trades on the Russia-Ukraine occupation events. We divide all transactions into two categories based on relevance (related events and unrelated events), and define transaction concentration = number of Russia-Ukraine occupation event-related transactions / total transactions. Using this metric, we selected 439 highly focused accounts from the 23,316 accounts, while excluding 1,284 market maker accounts with transaction numbers exceeding 500.

Chart 1: Trader Transaction Focus Distribution

After weighting win rate, profit, and minimum trade count, we further distilled 47 highly suspicious accounts from these 439 highly focused accounts for manual review.

Chart 2: High Focus Account Performance vs. Participation Intensity Bubble Chart

2.1.2 Profile 2: Fund Focus ― "I dare to bet heavily on events where I know the outcome"

From the 21,593 low behavioral focus accounts excluded in the focus distribution, we further screened valuable accounts based on fund focus, selecting 773 suspicious accounts with fund focus greater than 0.5 (Fund Focus = Transaction Volume related to Russia-Ukraine occupation event / Total Transaction Volume).

Chart 3: Trader Fund Focus Distribution

We then added metrics such as trade count, profit, win rate, etc., to filter out 282 highly suspicious accounts from the 773 candidate accounts for manual review.

Chart 4: Fund Focus-Win Rate-Profit-Loss Scatter Bubble Chart

2.2 Final Screening and Result Presentation

We conducted a thorough review of the 329 highly suspicious accounts that were screened and their complete transaction history. For account owner protection, in this article, we selected 4 of these accounts as cases for in-depth presentation and analysis.

These accounts exhibit the most explanatory anomalous patterns in terms of trade timing, betting concentration, and performance outcomes.

Behavioral Focus — Noirdesir had a 91% win rate in the Rus-Ukraine Occupation Event trades, with a total profit of $908.12 accounting for 81.38% of their overall profit. Out of the 11 trades made for the event, 9 were bets on the occupation status of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, two areas less than 10 km apart.

Behavioral Focus — Vladqwe had a 93.75% win rate in the Rus-Ukraine Occupation Event trades, with a total profit of $556.98 representing 77.89% of their total profit. Their trades related to the Rus-Ukraine occupation accounted for 61.54% of all trades and 76.17% of the total amount wagered. Out of their 16 trades for the event, 8 were about the occupation status of Rodynske, Pokrovsk, and Myrnohrad, all within 10 km of each other.

Behavioral Focus — Napoleon1988 had an 80% win rate in the Rus-Ukraine Occupation Event trades, with a total profit of $3,620.56, representing 91.57% of their total profit. The average wager for Rus-Ukraine occupation-related trades ($1,558.24) was 4 times higher than the average wager for other events ($387.78).

Funds Focus — starship0903 had a 92.59% win rate in the Rus-Ukraine Occupation Event trades, with a total profit of $23,943.4. The account experienced a total loss of $16,326.25 from other trades, with the largest single loss (-$14298.59) being a bet on a Google Search trend personality.

3. Summary and Further Applications

Theoretical discoveries are exciting, but their true value lies in practice. We realize that if we can continuously track the behavior of these anomalous accounts, their betting actions themselves could become leading indicators of predicting future events.

BlockBeats is committed to transforming this methodology into productivity. Founded in February 2018, BlockBeats is one of the most influential crypto industry media outlets in the Chinese Internet. With over 15 million online users and more than 4.5 million app downloads, it has consistently ranked high in the App Store News download list. After clearly predicting the market's impact on the news industry, we quickly established a prediction market team under BlockBeats, named PolyBeats.

PolyBeats has established a monitoring system to track suspicious accounts' dynamics in various prediction markets in real-time, attempting to integrate on-chain analysis, public opinion, information, and transaction profiles into well-founded current affairs news. This approach has been validated in multiple fields.

Case Study 1: Successful Prediction of the Google AI Model Gemini 3.0 Flash Release Time

Tech Product Launch: On November 28, 2025, PolyBeats captured three suspicious accounts through real-time transaction monitoring that had no on-chain intersection but exhibited highly consistent betting behavior: Account NCW, fitting the "behavioral focus" characteristic of a typical one-time insider wallet, and account ambuscade, fitting the "financial focus" characteristic of abnormal over-betting.

In the context of November 28, the three accounts, through their betting behavior, pegged the Gemini 3.0 Flash release date between December 15 and December 31. Ultimately, the model was released on December 17, 2025.

Original Article Link: https://t.me/PolyBeats_Bot/13

Case Study 2: Prediction of US Strike Against Venezuela

Geopolitical Action: On December 9, 2025, PolyBeats, after combining geopolitics, open-source intelligence classic indicator Pizza Index, and transaction profile analysis, discovered two accounts aligning with "capital concentration" betting that a US-Venezuela conflict would occur by December 31, 2025.

The subsequent turn of events for this news flash was quite dramatic: On December 31, 2025, no relevant military action occurred. However, on January 4, 2026, shortly after the shocking news of the "US Special Forces successfully capturing the Venezuelan President" surfaced, Trump publicly stated that the operation was actually scheduled for December 29 but was delayed due to extreme weather conditions in the Caribbean.

Original Article Link: https://t.me/PolyBeats_Bot/42

Case Three: Successfully Predicting AI as the 2025 Time Magazine Person of the Year

Cultural Entertainment Award: On December 10, 2025, on the eve of Time magazine's Person of the Year selection, the account shinewreck bet thirty thousand dollars on AI as the Person of the Year with a historical opening balance of only $1.49. This transaction profile exhibited anomalous significant over-betting aligning with "capital concentration." The next day, Time magazine's cover revealed AI and its "architect" as the chosen recipients.

Original Article Link: https://t.me/PolyBeats_Bot/46

Case Four: Successfully Capturing Israeli Soldiers Exploiting Confidential Information for Profit in Prediction Markets

Leading Israel Officials 1 Month Ahead Capture Military Insider Trading: On February 12, 2026, Israeli authorities confirmed the arrest of two military insiders with classified information who had bet and profited in the prediction markets, and disclosed the account Rundeep, formerly known as ricosuave666.

As early as January 6, 2026, PolyBeats staked a bet on ricosuave666 in the Iran conflict, qualifying the account as an insider just one hour before the event, and reported on the account's past insider trades and the latest related developments in the channel.

Original Article Link: https://t.me/PolyBeats_Bot/156

These cases cover different fields such as technology, geopolitics, and the entertainment industry, demonstrating that this method does not rely on a single event type but possesses a certain level of cross-topic generalization ability. By conducting systematic on-chain behavior analysis, transforming market predictions' funds and transaction behavior into interpretable intelligence signals represents a new path with real-world value.

In the future, with more data accumulation and model iterations, this method is expected to become a crucial bridge connecting blockchain data analysis and news discovery mechanisms.

Rhythm BlockBeats has integrated with the Polymarket market on both the PC website and mobile app, becoming the world's first media platform to access a prediction market. In the latest real-time news, readers can directly see the relevant market data on Polymarket to help them have a more comprehensive interpretation and understanding of the news.

The true challenge of prediction markets is not accuracy but that they are undermining a long-standing default order in the content industry and regulation: only information allowed to be spoken out will become "public knowledge." When everything can be bet on, secrecy is no longer constrained by institutions, professional ethics, or news censorship but must continuously contend with the price discovery mechanism.

In a mild scenario, this means that series endings, award attributions, and business decisions will be known to the market in advance; while in an extreme scenario, it even touches upon war and geopolitical conflicts: people can know "military intelligence" level information through soldiers at the warfront betting, directly influencing the course of war, and even altering reality.

This report has already demonstrated that we can find genuine information hidden in the corners of prediction markets, and we are very confident that the reality transformed by prediction markets is about to emerge.

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