The U.S. fleet deployed to Iran is much larger in scale than the recent one to Venezuela, which also means that this asset's plunge is more severe this time.

A few hours ago, Trump and the Iranian side began to talk tough more frequently. Meanwhile, rumors have been circulating in the community that the U.S. aircraft carrier "Lincoln" and its strike group deployed in the Middle East have entered a "Comms blackout" state, indicating that action against Iran may be imminent.

All financial market investors are on edge.

Let's start with the U.S. stock market. The Nasdaq 100's decline quickly expanded to 2%, the S&P 500 fell over 1%, and the Dow also couldn't escape, dropping 0.5%. The assets hit the hardest are those highly tied to risk appetite, with cryptocurrency-related stocks almost being rubbed into the ground. MSTR dropped nearly 10%, COIN fell over 4%, while HOOD, SBET, BMNR, and CRCL all experienced significant pullbacks.

The so-called safe-haven assets gold and silver are also falling. Spot gold plummeted over 400 points in half an hour, breaking through three round-number levels from its high point to around $5155. Silver's drop was even more drastic, plunging 8% intraday from $121 directly below $108.

The crypto market also couldn't dodge the impact. As soon as the U.S. stock market opened, Bitcoin started to slide from $88,000 to around $83,000; Ethereum briefly fell below $2800, SOL dropped below $118, and BNB also fell below $865.

This means that global funds have already assumed the worst-case scenario, that war is about to begin.

What the U.S. Prepared Before the Last "Showdown"

Put the cards on the table first, then decide whether to flip the table. This seems to be the consistent practice of the U.S. government.

If we look back at the most recent action against Venezuela, we can see signals of the U.S.'s preparations before the formal attack: in the weeks leading up to a series of attacks on Venezuelan ships, the U.S. had stockpiled a large number of military assets in the Caribbean region. The official explanation at the time was that these ships were suspected of smuggling drugs into the U.S., but no clear evidence was presented. However, everyone knows the real facts: on January 3, the U.S. military directly intervened and took away Venezuelan President Maduro from Caracas.

It was said that the U.S. aircraft carrier was also in position at that time. Usually, 5 to 7 days before the official action, the U.S. military's core strike force had already entered the designated area, and all that was left was to wait for a "suitable time."

Before the attack on Iran in June 2025, the same pattern unfolded. Days before the operation began, the media captured unusual movements of U.S. military equipment. On June 21, the U.S. suddenly deployed 6 B-2 stealth bombers to Guam, then casually explained that it was a feint to maintain the element of surprise. However, those familiar with U.S. military logic understood that strategic assets of this level were never merely for "exercises." Simultaneously, two carrier strike groups led by the Carl Vinson and Lincoln aircraft carriers had already been deployed in the Arabian Sea. The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Thomas Hudner was also redirected to the eastern Mediterranean.

From this, it can be seen that the deployment of aircraft carriers at sea, the mobilization of strategic bombers and heavy strike capabilities, and the deployment of air defense systems are the three main characteristics of U.S. military deployment before a conflict.

And now, similar signals are gradually replaying.

Is the Second Carrier on the Way?

"We have a very big fleet being sent to the area. Maybe we won't need it," Trump said, and shortly after, the U.S. Central Command confirmed on social platform X that a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the USS Lincoln, had been dispatched to the Middle East.

The carrier left San Diego in November last year, where it had been on a mission in the South China Sea. Now, it has a new combat purpose — Iran.

The Lincoln is one of the core assets of the U.S. Navy and one of ten nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. It does not rely on diesel but is driven by a nuclear reactor, theoretically able to operate continuously for decades without refueling. Equipped with highly advanced missile systems, radars, and sensors, it is itself a floating combat command center at sea.

USS Lincoln Carrier Information

The Lincoln's track was originally highly classified, but because it had to pass through the Strait of Malacca, one of the world's busiest waterways, it had to turn on its transponder to avoid collisions. It was this brief "lighting up" that allowed the outside world to confirm that it had crossed the Indian Ocean on January 23. Subsequently, the transponder was turned off, and its position disappeared again. However, based on its speed, it has now essentially reached the vicinity of the theater of operations and is on standby.

After passing through the Strait of Malacca, the transponder was turned off again, and the carrier disappeared from radar once more. The remaining information had to be inferred from its speed. But based on its speed, the current USS Lincoln has essentially arrived near the theater of operations and is in position.

At the same time, it appears that a second aircraft carrier is also on the way.

The USS George H.W. Bush set sail from the U.S. East Coast on January 13, and it is widely believed that it is likely crossing the Atlantic, passing through the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean. Although the possibility of it being just a readiness training cannot be ruled out, at this timing, few people really believe it is a coincidence. Most military analysts speculate that the deployment of the George H.W. Bush is to "escalate" the situation in the Middle East.

Middle East Terrain

Many military analysts also agree: the truly "appropriate" time to strike is likely after the second aircraft carrier battle group is in place. One aircraft carrier can certainly engage in combat, but with two, it means that air superiority, strike frequency, and fault tolerance will all be maximized. Since the optimal window for attacking Iran in early January has passed, the difference between waiting for a day and waiting for a week is not significant. Rather than acting in haste, it is better to wait for the second aircraft carrier battle group to be in place, concentrate the military power in the Middle East to the maximum, and then make a decisive move.

However, as of now, the Bush has not been spotted crossing the critical strait, and based on its speed, it has not yet fully reached its prepared position.

Speaking of aircraft carrier deployment, the airspace is also busy. The U.S. Central Command has announced a multi-day readiness exercise in its area of responsibility, covering over 20 Middle Eastern, Asian, and African countries. The word "exercise" itself is quite flexible.

Of course, where there is an attack, there is certainly defense.

Especially when it comes to the U.S.' protection of Israel. According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. is also deploying additional Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems to the Middle East. Typically, the actual timetable for the start of the war only unfolds after the completion of the air defense system deployment. However, the specific timing is almost impossible for the outside world to know.

Some analysts are even looking further ahead: Trump has been persistent about Greenland, not just for its resources. There are crucial U.S. radar warning facilities there, which are key nodes in preventing long-range ballistic missile attacks. Controlling these locations fundamentally establishes a defensive depth for a larger-scale conflict.

Israel has clearly also entered the same timeframe. On January 25 local time, Israeli Northern Command Chief Rafi Milo publicly stated that the Israeli military is preparing for a chain reaction following potential U.S. military action against Iran. Even earlier, The Jerusalem Post had cited defense officials saying that the Israeli military has raised its alert level across the board to deal with "the imminent U.S. attack."

In this context, the true aim of the United States is becoming increasingly clear. If action is taken, the target is likely not just a one-time limited strike, but a direct hit at the Iranian regime itself. It is for this reason that the United States emphasizes "all set." A missed strike would result in prolonged attrition, a political risk no U.S. administration is willing to bear.

The United States Government's "Partial Shutdown" Woes

Beyond military risks, the United States is also accumulating pressure domestically.

The Daily Hodl editorial team believes that the U.S. government's "partial shutdown" at the end of the month is also one of the key reasons for today's decline.

Each fiscal year, the U.S. Congress must pass 12 appropriations bills. If they can't agree, the government shuts down. The current continuing resolution expires on January 31, leaving only two working days for Congress. Informal Senate tallies have shown procedural votes to advance the appropriations bill failing, making a partial or complete government shutdown an almost certain event.

With only 2 working days left, the reality of a partial government shutdown is almost certain. Informal voting results in the U.S. Senate have shown that the procedural vote held that day did not advance the government appropriations bill passed by the House of Representatives.

The budget dispute between the two parties is mainly focused on the Department of Homeland Security. The main event was in Minnesota, a long-standing Democratic stronghold, where one of the largest welfare fraud cases in U.S. history, involving up to $9 billion, was exposed not long ago. More details can be found in related reading: "U.S. Government to Shutdown Again, Will the Crypto Community Be Affected." Here, we briefly discuss the points of contention:

Many of the organizations involved in the case have close ties to the local Democratic political ecosystem. Evidence shows that much of the fraudulently obtained welfare funds have flowed into Democratic campaign donations.

Moreover, Minnesota is highly immigrant-populated, with large immigrant communities like Somalis. The Minnesota Attorney General's office stated that among the 92 defendants prosecuted in this case, 82 are Somali Americans. This intertwining of immigrant law enforcement, welfare distribution, and public safety has coincidentally hit on a core issue of the long-standing Democratic-Republican divide, a key policy focus repeatedly emphasized by Trump and the Republicans in their campaigns.

As a result, Trump has intensified immigration enforcement in Minnesota. The sudden escalation of enforcement has quickly led to serious consequences, with two incidents where federal immigration officers mistakenly shot and killed local residents, sparking widespread protests and riots, even requiring the deployment of the National Guard to maintain order. The Democratic Party swiftly seized this opportunity, using ICE's fatal shootings in Minnesota as irrefutable evidence of the agency's loss of control over its enforcement methods.

The Democratic Party's logic is quite clear: ICE has caused two deaths in Minnesota, proving that the agency's enforcement process has serious issues. Without substantive reform of ICE and the addition of strict oversight provisions, why should we continue to fund it? The Democratic Party calls for reducing the size of ICE or at least attaching strict oversight measures.

The Republican position, on the other hand, is sharp: the $9 billion Minnesota welfare fraud case involved mostly Somali Americans, illustrating the need to strengthen rather than weaken immigration enforcement. ICE is a key force in combating illegal immigration and welfare fraud and must be adequately funded.

With internal strife yielding no results and external risks escalating simultaneously, whether war will truly break out is a question to which no one can provide a definite answer. But the Timely Editor hopes for world peace.

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