When you truly know the outcome of something, you cannot not monetize your knowledge, even if you are already wealthy.

On a prediction market called Polymarket, someone leveraged the absolutely confidential insider information that they "knew who the next Fed Chair would be," and in just 10 days, made hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Making it even more absurd, during this period, Trump continuously disrupted the market with his characteristic nonsense, once again confirming that "news is noise for the masses; the flow of real money is the only signal."

The mechanism of prediction markets is not complex. Traders can use binary options to bet on whether an event that has not yet occurred will occur.

For example, for the event "Will Trump nominate XXX as the next Fed Chair?" if the price of the "Yes" option is $0.5, it means the market believes the probability of this event happening is 50%. If the event ultimately occurs, the option settles at $1; if it does not occur, it goes to zero.

This mechanism, coupled with the anonymity of blockchain, has rapidly turned prediction markets into a haven for those with information advantages. With just a click of the mouse to place a bet, insider information differentials can quietly turn into real profits.

The appointment of the Fed Chair has always been one of the most sensitive topics in the global financial market. And the entry of the "prankster" Trump has turned this topic into a months-long reality show.

As of January 25, 2026, the cumulative trading volume for the event "Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?" has exceeded $300 million.

Behind this astronomical figure, Trump deserves all the credit:

On December 1, Trump said on Air Force One, "I know who I'm going to pick."

The next day, Trump publicly remarked to one of the candidates, Kevin Hassett, "I guess we have a potential Fed Chairman here too... Thank you, Kevin."

Trump's comments instantly reflected in the prediction market: Kevin Hassett's probability of winning surged to 85% at one point.

However, just ten days later, Trump changed his tune in an interview, putting another candidate, Kevin Warsh, on par with Kevin Hassett as a top choice and emphasizing Warsh's support for rate cuts.

The probabilities of the two Kevins have been promptly reallocated, both hovering around 45%.

Among many other candidates with a probability of less than 10%, there is a Belad high executive named Rick Rieder: as the world's largest asset management company, Belad currently manages assets totaling over $14 trillion.

Rieder currently serves as Belad's Chief Investment Officer (CIO), with over 20 years of experience in the financial field. Despite his outstanding background, due to his lack of past records in the political arena, his probability of winning was once below 1%.

The Underdog Truth

Until mid-January, Rieder's probability of winning was still below 10%. The mainstream media hardly discussed him, with the market's attention highly focused on the two Kevins.

It was in this context that an account named HD2 bet on Rieder's victory on January 15, investing around $10,000.

In the realm of transactions reaching hundreds of millions, this transaction seemed insignificant, receiving little attention except for a broadcast by PolyBeats 10 minutes after the transaction occurred.

PolyBeats, 10 minutes after this transaction occurred, reported on the transaction through on-chain activity and transaction profiling.

It wasn't until 40 hours later that an on-chain analysis platform mentioned this transaction. Afterward, the market gradually began to shift its focus to Rieder, deeply analyzing his potential to become the Federal Reserve Chair.

Starting on January 21, mainstream media began to sequentially follow up on news related to Rieder: "Trump has officially interviewed Rieder," "Trump openly praised Rieder as very outstanding," "Rieder may become a dark horse," and so on.

With intensive coverage, the market quickly adjusted its expectations: as of January 25, Rieder's probability of winning had approached 60%. Meanwhile, the combined probability of the two previous focal points, the two Kevins, was now less than 30%.

At this point, the bet made by HD2 a week ago had already yielded over $150,000 in unrealized gains.

10-Minute Insider Capture

The suspicious nature of that HD2 transaction was not entirely untraceable.

While the blockchain may be anonymous, all activities are permanently recorded. According to the content broadcast by PolyBeats, HD2's on-chain activity was ultimately traced back to a crypto venture capital firm called Hypersphere Capital.

In the context of January 15, this transaction becomes even more intriguing: Rick Rieder, as BlackRock's CIO, has close ties to capital and finance, and Hypersphere's crypto nature is closely linked to Trump's supportive stance on cryptocurrency.

Another point to note is that the 15th was the day Trump interviewed Rieder.

As these pieces are connected, and as more and more subsequent analyses are disseminated, the market gradually realized, "Perhaps the probability of Rieder being selected has been severely underestimated."

Those media outlets that closely followed the "current odds," always lagging behind in probability, missed out on HD2 and missed out on the signal itself.

Besides HD2, PolyBeats has also mentioned several other suspicious insiders regarding Rieder's upcoming Fed Chair selection.

For instance, macrotrading, a new account registered in December 2025. At that time, the Fed Chair topic was hot, and everyone was speculating on "When will Trump announce the next chair?" and "Will he choose Hassett or Warsh?"

It was in this context that macrotrading, with Rieder's probability at only 5%, bet $10,000. One month later, this fund had turned into $210,000, a twenty-fold increase.

In addition, the other three accounts mentioned in the channel all bet when Rieder's selection probability was below 10%, currently yielding between 4.4 and 10.6 times the initial investment.

This has also raised the core controversy of prediction markets: if it is merely a tool for insiders to monetize information, it is nothing more than a gray casino where a few harvest retail traders. But if we see it as an oracle that reveals the truth in advance, with the assistance of on-chain analysis tools, it may allow ordinary people to glimpse the outline of the future.

Prediction markets do not create truth, but they act as amplifiers of maximal dissemination value for those who are earliest to know the truth.

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